Estimated long-term health effects
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon (France)
- AN Belorusskoj SSR, Minsk (Belarus)
- All-Union Scientific Centre of Radiation Medicine, Kiev (Ukraine)
- California Univ., Livermore, CA (United States) Lawrence Livermore Lab.
- Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Hiroshima (Japan)
- MRRC of RAMS, Obninsk (Russia)
Apart from the dramatic increase in thyroid cancer in those exposed as children, there is no evidence to date of a major public health impact of the radiation exposure from the Chernobyl accident in the three most affected countries. Although some increases in the frequency of cancer in exposed populations have been reported, these results are difficult to interpret, mainly because of differences in the intensity and method of follow-up between exposed populations and the general population to which they are compared. If the experience of atomic bomb survivors and of other exposed populations is applicable, the major radiological impact of the accident will be cancer and the total lifetime numbers of excess cancers will be greatest among the liquidators and among the residents of contaminated territories, of the order of 2,000 to 2,500. These increases would be difficult to detect epidemiologically against an expected background number of 41,500 and 433,000 respectively (size of the exposed populations: 200,000 and 3,700,000, respectively). It is noted, however, that the exposures received by populations exposed as a result of Chernobyl are different (in type and pattern) from those of atomic bomb survivors. Predictions derived from these populations are therefore uncertain. Indeed, the extent of the increase in thyroid cancer incidence in persons exposed as children was not foreseen. In addition, only ten years have passed since the accident. It is essential therefore that monitoring of the health of the population be continued in order to assess the public health impact of the accident, even if, apart from leukemia among liquidators, little detectable increase of cancers due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident is expected.
- Research Organization:
- California Univ., Livermore, CA (United States). Lawrence Livermore Lab.
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-48
- OSTI ID:
- 273753
- Report Number(s):
- UCRL-JC-123710; CONF-960404-2; ON: DE96012156; TRN: 96:020726
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: International conference on one decade after Chernobyl: summing up the radiological consequences of the accident, Vienna (Austria), 8-12 Apr 1996; Other Information: PBD: Apr 1996
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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