Temporal clustering of paleoearthquakes
The character of the earthquake cycle is important in understanding and modeling behavior of seismogenic sources. Of particular importance is the question of whether the cyclic tectonic loading and release process is periodic or aperiodic, because recurrence data are incorporated into most seismic hazard estimates. Most probabilistic seismic hazard models utilize a periodic recurrence model, in which it is assumed that the average long-term recurrence interval adequately represents real fault behavior. This is essentially the classical Reid concept where uniform stress accumulation is used to estimate the timing of regular, periodic earthquakes having uniform stress drops. Within the last decade, however, a growing body of seismic data, largely derived from plate boundary faults, suggests that actual fault behavior is far more complex than that suggested by the original Reid concept, and that the seismic cycle is not so simple. For example, Shimazaki and Nakata proposed two additional earthquake recurrence models based on studied of less-regular Japanese earthquakes: the time-predictable and the slip-predictable models. Thatcher further illustrated that some major plate-boundary faults do not display periodic behavior as commonly assumed, and that such activity is actually the exception rather than the rule.
- Research Organization:
- Nevada Univ., Reno, NV (United States). Center for Neotectonic Studies
- OSTI ID:
- 240928
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/NV/10461-T46; ON: DE96006638; TRN: 96:013587
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: PBD: 1994; Related Information: Is Part Of Evaluation of the geologic relations and seismotectonic stability of the Yucca Mountain Area Nevada Waste Site Investigation (NNWSI). Progress report, 30 September 1994; PB: 350 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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