Quantification of uncertain outcomes from site characterization: Insights from the ESF-AS

Conference · Wed Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 1992

OSTI ID:138291

Boyle, W J; Parrish, D K ^[1]; Beccue, P C ^[2]

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1. RE/SPEC, Inc., Rapid City, SD (United States)
2. Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., Menlo Park, CA (United States)

As part of the Exploratory Studies Facility Alternatives Study (ESF-AS) the uncertain outcomes from site characterization were quantified using a probabilistic tree known as ``Nature`s Tree.`` Nature`s Tree distinguished the true characteristics of the Yucca Mountain site from the perceived characteristics deduced from testing. Bayesian probabilistic calculations converted probabilities in Nature`s Tree to the probabilistic estimates required for the comparative analysis of Exploratory Studies Facility-repository options. Experts on characterization testing explicitly addressed several site characterization issues that are considered implicitly in many site characterization programs.

• Research Organization: Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: AC04-76DP00789
• OSTI ID: 138291
• Report Number(s): SAND-91-7039C; CONF-920430-6; ON: DE92004893; TRN: 92:004081
• Resource Relation: Conference: 3. international high level radioactive waste management (IHLRWM) conference, Las Vegas, NV (United States), 12-16 Apr 1992; Other Information: PBD: [1992]
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

05 NUCLEAR FUELS
99 MATHEMATICS
COMPUTERS
INFORMATION SCIENCE
MANAGEMENT
LAW
MISCELLANEOUS
YUCCA MOUNTAIN
SITE CHARACTERIZATION
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
GEOLOGY
PROBABILITY
Yucca Mountain Project