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Title: The terrestrial biosphere as a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere

Journal Article · · Nature (London)
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16946· OSTI ID:1265967
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [1];  [1];  [3];  [10];  [11];  [1];  [3];  [12];  [10];  [9];  [13] more »;  [14];  [15];  [16] « less
  1. Auburn Univ., Auburn, AL (United States)
  2. Auburn Univ., Auburn, AL (United States); Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)
  3. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif sur Yvette (France)
  4. Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA (United States)
  5. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Research, Canberra (Australia)
  6. Emory Univ., Atlanta, GA (United States)
  7. Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States)
  8. Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)
  9. Univ. of Exeter, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  10. NOAA Earth System Research Lab., Boulder, CO (United States)
  11. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  12. Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States)
  13. The Ecosystems Center, Woods Hole, MA (United States)
  14. Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States)
  15. Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
  16. Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)

The terrestrial biosphere can release or absorb the greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), and therefore has an important role in regulating atmospheric composition and climate1. Anthropogenic activities such as land-use change, agriculture and waste management have altered terrestrial biogenic greenhouse gas fluxes, and the resulting increases in methane and nitrous oxide emissions in particular can contribute to climate change2, 3. The terrestrial biogenic fluxes of individual greenhouse gases have been studied extensively4, 5, 6, but the net biogenic greenhouse gas balance resulting from anthropogenic activities and its effect on the climate system remains uncertain. Here we use bottom-up (inventory, statistical extrapolation of local flux measurements, and process-based modelling) and top-down (atmospheric inversions) approaches to quantify the global net biogenic greenhouse gas balance between 1981 and 2010 resulting from anthropogenic activities and its effect on the climate system. We find that the cumulative warming capacity of concurrent biogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions is a factor of about two larger than the cooling effect resulting from the global land carbon dioxide uptake from 2001 to 2010. This results in a net positive cumulative impact of the three greenhouse gases on the planetary energy budget, with a best estimate (in petagrams of CO2 equivalent per year) of 3.9 ± 3.8 (top down) and 5.4 ± 4.8 (bottom up) based on the GWP100 metric (global warming potential on a 100-year time horizon). Lastly, our findings suggest that a reduction in agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions, particularly in Southern Asia, may help mitigate climate change.

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725
OSTI ID:
1265967
Journal Information:
Nature (London), Vol. 531, Issue 7593; ISSN 0028-0836
Publisher:
Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 334 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Increased nitrogen enrichment and shifted patterns in the world's grassland: 1860–2016 journal January 2019
Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change journal August 2017
Targeted mutagenesis of a conserved anther-expressed P450 gene confers male sterility in monocots journal October 2016
Identifying environmental drivers of greenhouse gas emissions under warming and reduced rainfall in boreal-temperate forests journal July 2017
The Evolution of Climate Changes in Portugal: Determination of Trend Series and Its Impact on Forest Development journal June 2019
Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia journal March 2018
The underappreciated potential of peatlands in global climate change mitigation strategies journal March 2018
Study of the Spatio-Temporal Differentiation of Factors Influencing Carbon Emission of the Planting Industry in Arid and Vulnerable Areas in Northwest China journal December 2019
The integration of nitrogen dynamics into a land surface model. Part 1: model description and site-scale validation journal December 2018
Fraction of nitrous oxide production in nitrification and its effect on total soil emission: A meta-analysis and global-scale sensitivity analysis using a process-based model journal July 2019
Responses of global terrestrial water use efficiency to climate change and rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration in the twenty-first century journal June 2017
Room‐Temperature Photocatalytic Decomposition of N 2 O over Nanobelt‐Like Bi 2 MoO 6 journal May 2019
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Global mapping of potential natural vegetation: an assessment of Machine Learning algorithms for estimating land potential posted_content July 2018
Humid Subtropical Forests Constitute a Net Methane Source: A Catchment‐Scale Study journal September 2019
Global mapping of potential natural vegetation: an assessment of machine learning algorithms for estimating land potential journal January 2018
Effects of tillage practice on soil structure, N2O emissions and economics in cereal production under current socio-economic conditions in central Bosnia and Herzegovina journal November 2017
Interactions between Climate and Nutrient Cycles on Forest Response to Global Change: The Role of Mixed Forests journal July 2019
Global Nitrous Oxide Emissions From Pasturelands and Rangelands: Magnitude, Spatiotemporal Patterns, and Attribution journal February 2019
Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia text January 2018
Simulating CH4 and CO2 over South and East Asia using the zoomed chemistry transport model LMDz-INCA journal January 2018
Global manure nitrogen production and application in cropland during 1860–2014: a 5 arcmin gridded global dataset for Earth system modeling journal January 2017
Pollutant gas and particulate material emissions in ethanol production in Brazil: social and environmental impacts journal November 2019
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Shifting from a fertilization-dominated to a warming-dominated period journal September 2017
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Enhanced response of global wetland methane emissions to the 2015–2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation event journal June 2018
Global soil nitrous oxide emissions since the preindustrial era estimated by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models: Magnitude, attribution, and uncertainty journal December 2018
Increased global nitrous oxide emissions from streams and rivers in the Anthropocene journal December 2019
Sectoral assessment of greenhouse gas emissions in Pakistan journal October 2017
Increasing carbon footprint of grain crop production in the US Western Corn Belt journal November 2018
Global wetland contribution to 2000–2012 atmospheric methane growth rate dynamics journal September 2017
Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments text January 2017
Enhanced response of global wetland methane emissions to the 2015-2016 El Nino-Southern Oscillation event text January 2018
Opportunities and Trade-offs among BECCS and the Food, Water, Energy, Biodiversity, and Social Systems Nexus at Regional Scales journal January 2018
Increasing Dairy Sustainability with Integrated Crop–Livestock Farming journal January 2020
Long-term terrestrial carbon dynamics in the Midwestern United States during 1850-2015: Roles of land use and cover change and agricultural management journal February 2018
Climate change, carbon market instruments, and biodiversity: focusing on synergies and avoiding pitfalls journal August 2017
Modeling Carbon and Water Fluxes of Managed Grasslands: Comparing Flux Variability and Net Carbon Budgets between Grazed and Mowed Systems journal April 2019
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Listening to the Forest: An Artificial Neural Network‐Based Model of Carbon Uptake at Harvard Forest journal March 2019
Global soil nitrous oxide emissions since the preindustrial era estimated by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models: Magnitude, attribution, and uncertainty text January 2019
Stimulation of N 2 O emission by manure application to agricultural soils may largely offset carbon benefits: a global meta-analysis journal March 2017
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Half-Century Ammonia Emissions From Agricultural Systems in Southern Asia: Magnitude, Spatiotemporal Patterns, and Implications for Human Health journal January 2018
Historical (1700–2012) global multi-model estimates of the fire emissions from the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) journal January 2019
Mitigation potential of soil carbon management overestimated by neglecting N2O emissions journal February 2018
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Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments journal January 2017
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