Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty

Ballantyne, A. P.; Andres, R.; Houghton, R.; Stocker, B. D.; Wanninkhof, R.; Anderegg, W.; Cooper, L. A.; DeGrandpre, M.; Tans, P. P.; Miller, J. B.; Alden, C.; White, J. W.  C.

doi:10.5194/bg-12-2565-2015

Title: Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty

Journal Article · Thu Apr 30 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Biogeosciences (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2565-2015· OSTI ID:1265488

Ballantyne, A. P. ^[1]; Andres, R. ^[2]; Houghton, R. ^[3];

^[4]; Wanninkhof, R. ^[5]; Anderegg, W. ^[6]; Cooper, L. A. ^[1]; DeGrandpre, M. ^[1]; Tans, P. P. ^[7]; Miller, J. B. ^[7]; Alden, C. ^[8]; White, J. W. C. ^[9]

Univ. of Montana, Missoula, MT (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States)
Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)
Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory of NOAA, Miami, FL (United States)
Princeton Univ., NJ (United States). Environmental Institute
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab.
Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA (United States)
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)

Over the last 5 decades monitoring systems have been developed to detect changes in the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere and ocean; however, our ability to detect changes in the behavior of the global C cycle is still hindered by measurement and estimate errors. Here we present a rigorous and flexible framework for assessing the temporal and spatial components of estimate errors and their impact on uncertainty in net C uptake by the biosphere. We present a novel approach for incorporating temporally correlated random error into the error structure of emission estimates. Based on this approach, we conclude that the 2σ uncertainties of the atmospheric growth rate have decreased from 1.2 Pg C yr^₋1 in the 1960s to 0.3 Pg C yr^₋1 in the 2000s due to an expansion of the atmospheric observation network. The 2σ uncertainties in fossil fuel emissions have increased from 0.3 Pg C yr^₋1 in the 1960s to almost 1.0 Pg C yr^₋1 during the 2000s due to differences in national reporting errors and differences in energy inventories. Lastly, while land use emissions have remained fairly constant, their errors still remain high and thus their global C uptake uncertainty is not trivial. Currently, the absolute errors in fossil fuel emissions rival the total emissions from land use, highlighting the extent to which fossil fuels dominate the global C budget. Because errors in the atmospheric growth rate have decreased faster than errors in total emissions have increased, a ~20% reduction in the overall uncertainty of net C global uptake has occurred. Given all the major sources of error in the global C budget that we could identify, we are 93% confident that terrestrial C uptake has increased and 97% confident that ocean C uptake has increased over the last 5 decades. Thus, it is clear that arguably one of the most vital ecosystem services currently provided by the biosphere is the continued removal of approximately half of atmospheric CO₂ emissions from the atmosphere, although there are certain environmental costs associated with this service, such as the acidification of ocean waters.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1265488

Journal Information:: Biogeosciences (Online), Vol. 12, Issue 8; ISSN 1726-4189

Publisher:: European Geosciences UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 76 works

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Trend analysis of the airborne fraction and sink rate of anthropogenically released CO₂ Bennedsen, Mikkel; Hillebrand, Eric; Koopman, Siem Jan Biogeosciences, Vol. 16, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3651-2019	journal	January 2019
Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments Prestele, Reinhard; Arneth, Almut; Bondeau, Alberte Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 8, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017	journal	January 2017
Global Carbon Budget 2018 Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre Earth System Science Data, Vol. 10, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018	journal	January 2018
Global Carbon Budget 2017 Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre Earth System Science Data, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018	journal	January 2018
Global Carbon Budget 2019 Friedlingstein, Pierre; Jones, Matthew W.; O'Sullivan, Michael Earth System Science Data, Vol. 11, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019	journal	January 2019
Global Carbon Budget 2015 Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M. Earth System Science Data, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015	journal	January 2015
Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition Resplandy, L.; Keeling, R. F.; Eddebbar, Y. Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-56490-z	journal	December 2019
Global carbon budget 2019 Pierre, Friedlingstein,; W., Jones, Matthew; Michael, O'Sullivan, ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000385668	text	January 2019
Global Carbon Budget 2016 Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G. Earth System Science Data, Vol. 8, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016	journal	January 2016
Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments Prestele, Reinhard; Arneth, Almut; Bondeau, Alberte Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000070493	text	January 2017
Global Carbon Budget 2017 Le Quéré, C.; Andrew, R. M.; Friedlingstein, P. Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000081380	text	January 2018
Global carbon budget 2015 Le Quere, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M. Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/110103976	text	January 2015
Global Carbon Budget 2018 Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.141541	text	January 2018
Global Carbon Budget 2015 Le Quéré, Corinne; Moriarty, Róisín; Andrew, Robbie M. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000108126	text	January 2015
Atmospheric radiocarbon measurements to quantify CO2 emissions in the UK from 2014 to 2015 Wenger, Angelina; Pugsley, Katherine; O'Doherty, Simon Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1042	journal	November 2018
Global carbon budget 2019 Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, M. W.; O’Sullivan, M. Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000104785	text	January 2019
Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D. A. Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000061740	text	January 2016
Global Carbon Budget 2016 Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G. Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000064314	text	January 2016
A Bayesian ensemble data assimilation to constrain model parameters and land-use carbon emissions Lienert, Sebastian; Joos, Fortunat Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.116577	text	January 2018
Global Carbon Budget 2019 Friedlingstein, Pierre; Jones, Matthew W.; Michael, O&Apos;Sullivan, Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.141543	text	January 2019
Global Carbon Budget 2016 Jain, Atul K.; Doney, Scott C.; Schwinger, Jörg Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.99520	text	January 2016