Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models

Andrews, Timothy; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Webb, Mark J.; Taylor, Karl E.

doi:10.1029/2012GL051607

Title: Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models

Journal Article · Tue May 15 00:00:00 EDT 2012 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051607· OSTI ID:1239215

Andrews, Timothy ^[1]; Gregory, Jonathan M. ^[2]; Webb, Mark J. ^[1]; Taylor, Karl E. ^[3]

Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Univ. of Reading, Reading (United Kingdom)
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

We quantify forcing and feedbacks across available CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) by analysing simulations forced by an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. This is the first application of the linear forcing-feedback regression analysis of Gregory et al. (2004) to an ensemble of AOGCMs. The range of equilibrium climate sensitivity is 2.1–4.7 K. Differences in cloud feedbacks continue to be important contributors to this range. Some models show small deviations from a linear dependence of top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes on global surface temperature change. We show that this phenomenon largely arises from shortwave cloud radiative effects over the ocean and is consistent with independent estimates of forcing using fixed sea-surface temperature methods. Moreover, we suggest that future research should focus more on understanding transient climate change, including any time-scale dependence of the forcing and/or feedback, rather than on the equilibrium response to large instantaneous forcing.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 1239215

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL-517031

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 9; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 513 works

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