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Title: Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

Abstract

People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends,more » that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. As a result, our studies highlight the importance of analyzing subpopulations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7]
  1. Univ. of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL (United States); Loyola Univ. Medical Center, Maywood, IL (United States); Food and Drug Administration, Silver Springs, MD (United States)
  2. Univ. of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL (United States)
  3. Chicago Dept. of Public Health, Chicago, IL (United States)
  4. George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (United States)
  5. Loyola Univ. Medical Center, Maywood, IL (United States); Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  6. Food and Drug Administration, Silver Springs, MD (United States)
  7. Univ. Medicine Greifswald (Germany)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1223795
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1235895
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-15-20358
Journal ID: ISSN 1932-6203
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC52-06NA25396
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
PLoS ONE
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 1932-6203
Publisher:
Public Library of Science
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES; Hepatitis C virus; careers; behavioral geography; social networks; demography; equipment; ethnic epidemiology; Hispanic people; Hepatitis C

Citation Formats

Gutfraind, Alexander, Boodram, Basmattee, Prachand, Nikhil, Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew, Dahari, Harel, Major, Marian E., and Kaderali, Lars. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0137993.
Gutfraind, Alexander, Boodram, Basmattee, Prachand, Nikhil, Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew, Dahari, Harel, Major, Marian E., & Kaderali, Lars. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections. United States. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0137993
Gutfraind, Alexander, Boodram, Basmattee, Prachand, Nikhil, Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew, Dahari, Harel, Major, Marian E., and Kaderali, Lars. 2015. "Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections". United States. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0137993. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1223795.
@article{osti_1223795,
title = {Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections},
author = {Gutfraind, Alexander and Boodram, Basmattee and Prachand, Nikhil and Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew and Dahari, Harel and Major, Marian E. and Kaderali, Lars},
abstractNote = {People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. As a result, our studies highlight the importance of analyzing subpopulations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0137993},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1223795}, journal = {PLoS ONE},
issn = {1932-6203},
number = 9,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Sep 30 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Wed Sep 30 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}

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Cited by: 17 works
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Works referenced in this record:

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Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States
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Needle Exchange and Injection-Related Risk Behaviors in Chicago: A Longitudinal Study
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Meta-Analysis of Hepatitis C Virus Vaccine Efficacy in Chimpanzees Indicates an Importance for Structural Proteins
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Spontaneous Control of Primary Hepatitis C Virus Infection and Immunity Against Persistent Reinfection
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Spontaneous viral clearance following acute hepatitis C infection: a systematic review of longitudinal studies
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Modelling the impact on Hepatitis C transmission of reducing syringe sharing: London case study
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Chronic hepatitis C virus infection and increases in viral load in a prospective cohort of young, HIV-uninfected injection drug users
journal, December 2011


A 33-Year Follow-up of Narcotics Addicts
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Sexual Risk Behavior Associated with Transition to Injection Among Young Non-Injecting Heroin Users
journal, October 2012


Sexual and Other Noninjection Risks for HBV and HCV Seroconversions among Noninjecting Heroin Users
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Complex adaptive systems modeling with Repast Simphony
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Association of Opioid Agonist Therapy With Lower Incidence of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Young Adult Injection Drug Users
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Declining Incidence of Hepatitis C Virus Infection among People Who Inject Drugs in a Canadian Setting, 1996-2012
journal, June 2014


Meta-Regression of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Relation to Time Since Onset of Illicit Drug Injection: The Influence of Time and Place
journal, October 2008


Hepatitis C Virus Infection Among Injection Drug Users: Survival Analysis of Time to Seroconversion
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Hepatitis C vaccine: supply and demand
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Prospects for Prophylactic and Therapeutic Vaccines Against Hepatitis C Virus
journal, July 2012


Injection Drug Users in the United States, 1979-2002: An Aging Population
journal, January 2007


A 33-Year Follow-up of Narcotics Addicts
journal, May 2001


Association of Opioid Agonist Therapy With Lower Incidence of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Young Adult Injection Drug Users
journal, December 2014


Identifying Hidden Sexual Bridging Communities in Chicago
journal, June 2009


Racial and ethnic changes in heroin injection in the United States: Implications for the HIV/AIDS epidemic
journal, April 2008


Socio-behavioral and geographic correlates of prevalent hepatitis C virus infection among young injection drug users in metropolitan Baltimore and Chicago
journal, September 2010


Chronic hepatitis C virus infection and increases in viral load in a prospective cohort of young, HIV-uninfected injection drug users
journal, December 2011


Modelling the spread of hepatitis C virus infection among injecting drug users in Glasgow: Implications for prevention
journal, June 2006


HCV Synthesis Project: Preliminary analyses of HCV prevalence in relation to age and duration of injection
journal, October 2007


Potential impact of vaccination on the hepatitis C virus epidemic in injection drug users
journal, March 2009


Modelling hepatitis C transmission over a social network of injecting drug users
journal, March 2012


Mixing patterns between age groups in social networks
journal, October 2007


Hepatitis C vaccine: supply and demand
journal, December 2008


Meta-Analysis of Hepatitis C Virus Vaccine Efficacy in Chimpanzees Indicates an Importance for Structural Proteins
journal, September 2010


Epidemiology of Viral Hepatitis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma
journal, May 2012


Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States
journal, April 2006


Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems
journal, May 2002


Social Structural and Behavioral Underpinnings of Hyperendemic Hepatitis C Virus Transmission in Drug Injectors
journal, September 2006


Sexual and Other Noninjection Risks for HBV and HCV Seroconversions among Noninjecting Heroin Users
journal, April 2007


Prevalence of Hepatitis C Virus Infection among Injection Drug Users in the United States, 1994–2004
journal, June 2008


Acute Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Young Adult Injection Drug Users: A Prospective Study of Incident Infection, Resolution, and Reinfection
journal, October 2009


Meta-Regression of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Relation to Time Since Onset of Illicit Drug Injection: The Influence of Time and Place
journal, October 2008


Prevalence, Incidence, and Risk Factors of Hepatitis C Virus Infection among Drug Users in Amsterdam
journal, October 1990


Hepatitis C Virus Infection Among Injection Drug Users: Survival Analysis of Time to Seroconversion
journal, January 2004


Transitions to Injecting Drug Use Among Noninjecting Heroin Users: Social Network Influence and Individual Susceptibility
journal, January 2006


Spontaneous viral clearance following acute hepatitis C infection: a systematic review of longitudinal studies
journal, January 2006


Dynamic modelling of hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs: a methodological review
journal, October 2014


Developing an HIV Behavioral Surveillance System for Injecting Drug Users: The National HIV Behavioral Surveillance System
journal, January 2007


Complex adaptive systems modeling with Repast Simphony
journal, March 2013


Trends in the Population Prevalence of People Who Inject Drugs in US Metropolitan Areas 1992–2007
journal, June 2013


Mortality among people who inject drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis
journal, February 2013


Epidemiology of hepatitis C virus infection
journal, January 2007


Works referencing / citing this record:

High-Risk Geographic Mobility Patterns among Young Urban and Suburban Persons who Inject Drugs and their Injection Network Members
journal, September 2017


Sensitivity analysis of Repast computational ecology models with R/Repast
journal, November 2016


Analyzing Repast Symphony models in R with RRepast package
journal, May 2016