Assessing the nonlinear response of fine particles to precursor emissions: Development and application of an extended response surface modeling technique v1.0
- Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)
- Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); State Environmental Protection Key Lab. of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing (China)
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)
- Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)
- South China Univ. of Technology (SCUT), Guangzhou (China)
- Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
An innovative extended response surface modeling technique (ERSM v1.0) is developed to characterize the nonlinear response of fine particles (PM₂̣₅) to large and simultaneous changes of multiple precursor emissions from multiple regions and sectors. The ERSM technique is developed based on the conventional response surface modeling (RSM) technique; it first quantifies the relationship between PM₂̣₅ concentrations and the emissions of gaseous precursors from each single region using the conventional RSM technique, and then assesses the effects of inter-regional transport of PM₂̣₅ and its gaseous precursors on PM₂̣₅ concentrations in the target region. We apply this novel technique with a widely used regional chemical transport model (CTM) over the Yangtze River delta (YRD) region of China, and evaluate the response of PM₂̣₅ and its inorganic components to the emissions of 36 pollutant–region–sector combinations. The predicted PM₂̣₅ concentrations agree well with independent CTM simulations; the correlation coefficients are larger than 0.98 and 0.99, and the mean normalized errors (MNEs) are less than 1 and 2% for January and August, respectively. It is also demonstrated that the ERSM technique could reproduce fairly well the response of PM₂̣₅ to continuous changes of precursor emission levels between zero and 150%. Employing this new technique, we identify the major sources contributing to PM₂̣₅ and its inorganic components in the YRD region. The nonlinearity in the response of PM₂̣₅ to emission changes is characterized and the underlying chemical processes are illustrated.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 1195951
- Journal Information:
- Geoscientific Model Development (Online), Vol. 8, Issue 1; ISSN 1991-9603
- Publisher:
- European Geosciences UnionCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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