Whitepaper prepared for DOE Workshop on Integrated Simulations for Magnetic Fusion Energy Sciences: Topic E: Beyond interpretive simulations
- Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Predictive simulations of magnetic confinement fusion and burning plasmas will require the quantification of all uncertainties and errors relating to the simulation capabilities. These include: discretization error (temporal and spatial); incomplete convergence error (nonlinear, linear, etc.); uncertainties in input data (initial conditions, boundary conditions, coefficients, thermo-physical properties, source terms, etc.); and uncertainties in the component models (the specific form and parameter values).13 Typically, there is a focus on model parameter uncertainties but uncertainties about which model to use and about the bias or discrepancy of a particular model (sometimes called model form error) often dominate parameter uncertainty. This whitepaper addresses the challenges of performing uncertainty quantification (UQ) for expensive computational models.
- Research Organization:
- Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC); USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC04-94AL85000
- OSTI ID:
- 1178923
- Report Number(s):
- SAND-2015-3214R; 583448
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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