Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)
Abstract
Dependable and predictable energy production is the key to the long-term success of the PV industry. PV systems show over the lifetime of their exposure a gradual decline that depends on many different factors such as module technology, module type, mounting configuration, climate etc. When degradation rates are determined from continuous data the statistical uncertainty is easily calculated from the regression coefficients. However, total uncertainty that includes measurement uncertainty and instrumentation drift is far more difficult to determine. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was chosen to investigate a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The most important effect for degradation rates is to avoid instrumentation that changes over time in the field. For instance, a drifting irradiance sensor, which can be achieved through regular calibration, can lead to a substantially erroneous degradation rates. However, the accuracy of the irradiance sensor has negligible impact on degradation rate uncertainty emphasizing that precision (relative accuracy) is more important than absolute accuracy.
- Authors:
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1128604
- Report Number(s):
- NREL/PO-5200-61449
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC36-08GO28308
- Resource Type:
- Conference
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Presented at the Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW), 25-26 February 2014, Golden, Colorado; Related Information: NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 14 SOLAR ENERGY; PHOTOVOLTAIC; PV; DEGRADATION RATES; IRRADIANCE; Solar Energy - Photovoltaics
Citation Formats
Jordan, D., Kurtz, S., and Hansen, C. Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster). United States: N. p., 2014.
Web.
Jordan, D., Kurtz, S., & Hansen, C. Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster). United States.
Jordan, D., Kurtz, S., and Hansen, C. 2014.
"Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)". United States. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1128604.
@article{osti_1128604,
title = {Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)},
author = {Jordan, D. and Kurtz, S. and Hansen, C.},
abstractNote = {Dependable and predictable energy production is the key to the long-term success of the PV industry. PV systems show over the lifetime of their exposure a gradual decline that depends on many different factors such as module technology, module type, mounting configuration, climate etc. When degradation rates are determined from continuous data the statistical uncertainty is easily calculated from the regression coefficients. However, total uncertainty that includes measurement uncertainty and instrumentation drift is far more difficult to determine. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was chosen to investigate a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The most important effect for degradation rates is to avoid instrumentation that changes over time in the field. For instance, a drifting irradiance sensor, which can be achieved through regular calibration, can lead to a substantially erroneous degradation rates. However, the accuracy of the irradiance sensor has negligible impact on degradation rate uncertainty emphasizing that precision (relative accuracy) is more important than absolute accuracy.},
doi = {},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1128604},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Apr 01 00:00:00 EDT 2014},
month = {Tue Apr 01 00:00:00 EDT 2014}
}