A semiparametric spatio-temporal model for solar irradiance data

Patrick, Joshua D.; Harvill, Jane L.; Hansen, Clifford W.

doi:10.1016/j.renene.2015.10.001

Title: A semiparametric spatio-temporal model for solar irradiance data

Journal Article · Tue Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2016 · Renewable Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2015.10.001· OSTI ID:1115287

^[1]; Harvill, Jane L. ^[2]; Hansen, Clifford W. ^[3]

Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)
Baylor Univ., Waco, TX (United States)
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Here, we evaluate semiparametric spatio-temporal models for global horizontal irradiance at high spatial and temporal resolution. These models represent the spatial domain as a lattice and are capable of predicting irradiance at lattice points, given data measured at other lattice points. Using data from a 1.2 MW PV plant located in Lanai, Hawaii, we show that a semiparametric model can be more accurate than simple interpolation between sensor locations. We investigate spatio-temporal models with separable and nonseparable covariance structures and find no evidence to support assuming a separable covariance structure. These results indicate a promising approach for modeling irradiance at high spatial resolution consistent with available ground-based measurements. Moreover, this kind of modeling may find application in design, valuation, and operation of fleets of utility-scale photovoltaic power systems.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

View Accepted Manuscript (Publisher)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC04-94AL85000; 1303122

OSTI ID:: 1115287

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1396757

Report Number(s):: SAND-2013-9073J; PII: S0960148115303542

Journal Information:: Renewable Energy, Vol. 87, Issue P1; ISSN 0960-1481

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 9 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (31)

On Stationary Processes in the Plane Whittle, P. Biometrika, Vol. 41, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/41.3-4.434	journal	January 1954
Forecasting of preprocessed daily solar radiation time series using neural networks Paoli, Christophe; Voyant, Cyril; Muselli, Marc Solar Energy, Vol. 84, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2010.08.011	journal	December 2010
Spline-backfitted kernel forecasting for functional-coefficient autoregressive models Patrick, Joshua; Harvill, Jane; Sims, Justin arXiv https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1502.03486	preprint	January 2015
Predicting solar radiation at high resolutions: A comparison of time series forecasts Reikard, Gordon Solar Energy, Vol. 83, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2008.08.007	journal	March 2009
Modeling solar irradiance smoothing for large PV power plants using a 45-sensor network and the Wavelet Variability Model Dyreson, Ana R.; Morgan, Eric R.; Monger, Samuel H. Solar Energy, Vol. 110 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2014.09.027	journal	December 2014
A Wavelet-Based Variability Model (WVM) for Solar PV Power Plants Lave, Matthew; Kleissl, Jan; Stein, Joshua S. IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, Vol. 4, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1109/TSTE.2012.2205716	journal	April 2013
From irradiance to output power fluctuations: the PV plant as a low pass filter Marcos, Javier; Marroyo, Luis; Lorenzo, Eduardo Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, Vol. 19, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.1063	journal	January 2011
Effect of correlations in time and spatial extent on performance of very large solar conversion systems Longhetto, A.; Elisei, G.; Giraud, C. Solar Energy, Vol. 43, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/0038-092X(89)90149-7	journal	January 1989
Quantifying PV power Output Variability Hoff, Thomas E.; Perez, Richard Solar Energy, Vol. 84, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2010.07.003	journal	October 2010
Non-Linear Autoregressive Time Series with Multivariate Gaussian Mixtures as Marginal Distributions Glasbey, C. A. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics, Vol. 50, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9876.00225	journal	June 2001
A spatiotemporal auto-regressive moving average model for solar radiation Glasbey, C. A.; Allcroft, D. J. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), Vol. 57, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2007.00617.x	journal	June 2008
Spatio-temporal variability of solar energy across a region: a statistical modelling approach Glasbey, C. A.; Graham, R.; Hunter, A. G. M. Solar Energy, Vol. 70, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0038-092X(00)00152-3	journal	January 2001
Solar irradiance forecasting using spatial-temporal covariance structures and time-forward kriging Yang, Dazhi; Gu, Chaojun; Dong, Zibo Renewable Energy, Vol. 60 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2013.05.030	journal	December 2013
Solar irradiance forecasting using spatio-temporal empirical kriging and vector autoregressive models with parameter shrinkage Yang, Dazhi; Dong, Zibo; Reindl, Thomas Solar Energy, Vol. 103 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2014.01.024	journal	May 2014
Modeling PV fleet output variability Hoff, Thomas E.; Perez, Richard Solar Energy, Vol. 86, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2011.11.005	journal	August 2012
Short-term irradiance variability: Preliminary estimation of station pair correlation as a function of distance Perez, Richard; Kivalov, Sergey; Schlemmer, Jim Solar Energy, Vol. 86, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2012.02.027	journal	August 2012
High-frequency irradiance fluctuations and geographic smoothing Lave, Matthew; Kleissl, Jan; Arias-Castro, Ery Solar Energy, Vol. 86, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2011.06.031	journal	August 2012
Intra-hour forecasts of solar power production using measurements from a network of irradiance sensors Lonij, Vincent P. A.; Brooks, Adria E.; Cronin, Alexander D. Solar Energy, Vol. 97 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2013.08.002	journal	November 2013
A Poisson model for anisotropic solar ramp rate correlations Arias-Castro, Ery; Kleissl, Jan; Lave, Matthew Solar Energy, Vol. 101 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2013.12.028	journal	March 2014
Fully Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Modeling of FMRI Data Woolrich, M. W.; Jenkinson, M.; Brady, J. M. IEEE Transactions on Medical Imaging, Vol. 23, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1109/TMI.2003.823065	journal	February 2004
Modelling nonlinear random vibrations using an amplitude-dependent autoregressive time series model Haggan, V.; Ozaki, T. Biometrika, Vol. 68, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/68.1.189	journal	January 1981
Functional-Coefficient Regression Models for Nonlinear Time Series Cai, Zongwu; Fan, Jianqing; Yao, Qiwei Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 95, Issue 451 https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2000.10474284	journal	September 2000
A note on multi-step forecasting with functional coefficient autoregressive models Harvill, Jane L.; Ray, Bonnie K. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 21, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.04.012	journal	October 2005
Functional Coefficient Autoregressive Models: Estimation and Tests of Hypotheses Chen, Rong; Liu, Lon‐Mu Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol. 22, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9892.00217	journal	March 2001
Functional coefficient autoregressive models for vector time series Harvill, Jane L.; Ray, Bonnie K. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Vol. 50, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2005.07.016	journal	August 2006
Spline-backfitted kernel smoothing of nonlinear additive autoregression model Wang, Li; Yang, Lijian The Annals of Statistics, Vol. 35, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1214/009053607000000488	journal	December 2007
Efficient and fast spline-backfitted kernel smoothing of additive models Wang, Jing; Yang, Lijian Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 61, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10463-007-0157-x	journal	October 2007
Spline-backfitted kernel smoothing of partially linear additive model Ma, Shujie; Yang, Lijian Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, Vol. 141, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jspi.2010.05.028	journal	January 2011
Spline-Backfitted Kernel Smoothing of Additive Coefficient Model Liu, Rong; Yang, Lijian Econometric Theory, Vol. 26, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466609090604	journal	January 2010
Tracking and back-tracking: Tracking and Back-Tracking Lorenzo, E.; Narvarte, L.; Muñoz, J. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, Vol. 19, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.1085	journal	February 2011
Application of a local linear autoregressive model to BOD time series Cai, Zongwu; Tiwari, Ram C. Environmetrics, Vol. 11, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-095X(200005/06)11:3<341::AID-ENV421>3.0.CO;2-8	journal	May 2000

Cited By (1)

Spline-backfitted kernel forecasting for functional-coefficient autoregressive models Patrick, Joshua; Harvill, Jane; Sims, Justin arXiv https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1502.03486	preprint	January 2015

Similar Records

A semiparametric latent factor model for large scale temporal data with heteroscedasticity

Journal Article · Sat Jul 17 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Journal of Multivariate Analysis · OSTI ID:1115287

Zhang, Lyuou; Zhou, Wen; Wang, Haonan

Generalized Spatio-Temporal Model of Backsheet Degradation From Field Surveys of Photovoltaic Modules

Journal Article · Fri Aug 02 00:00:00 EDT 2019 · IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics · OSTI ID:1115287

Wang, Yu; Huang, Wei-Heng; Fairbrother, Andrew; +14 more

Using spatio-temporal graph neural networks to estimate fleet-wide photovoltaic performance degradation patterns

Journal Article · Wed Feb 14 00:00:00 EST 2024 · PLoS ONE · OSTI ID:1115287

Fan, Yangxin; Wieser, Raymond; Yu, Xuanji; +3 more

Related Subjects

14 SOLAR ENERGY
irradiance
spatio-temporal model
nonseparability
lattice data
semiparametric time series

Title: A semiparametric spatio-temporal model for solar irradiance data

Citation Formats

References (31)

Cited By (1)

Similar Records

Related Subjects