Appendix I3-1 to Wind HUI Initiative 1: AWST-WindNET-Phase 1 Final Report
This report is an appendix to the Hawaii WindHUI efforts to develop and operationalize short-term wind forecasting and wind ramp event forecasting capabilities. The report summarizes the WindNET Phase 1 efforts on the Big Island of Hawaii and includes descriptions of modeling methodologies, use of field validation data, results and recommendations. The objective of the WindNET project was to investigate the improvement that could be obtained in short-term wind power forecasting for wind generation facilities operating on the island grids operated by Hawaiian Electric Companies through the use of atmospheric sensors deployed at targeted locations. WindNET is envisioned as a multiphase project that will address the short-term wind forecasting issues of all of the wind generation facilities on the all of the Hawaiian Electric Companies' island grid systems. The first phase of the WindNET effort (referred to as WindNET-1) was focused on the wind generation facilities on the Big Island of Hawaii. With complex terrain and marine environment, emphasis was on improving the 0 to 6 hour forecasts of wind power ramps and periods of wind variability, with a particular interest in the intra-hour (0-1 hour) look-ahead period. The WindNET project was built upon a foundation that was constructed with the results from a previously completed observation targeting study for the Big Island that was conducted as part of a project supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and interactions with the western utilities. The observational targeting study provided guidance on which variables to measure and at what locations to get the most improvement in forecast performance at a target forecast site. The recommendations of the observation targeting study were based on the application two techniques: (1) an objective method called ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) (Ancell and Hakim, 2007; Torn and Hakim, 2008; Zack et al, 2010); and (2) a subjective method based on a diagnostic analysis of large ramp events. The analysis was completed for both the wind farm on the southern tip of the Big Island and on the northern tip of the island. The WindNET project was designed to also deploy sensors to validate the Big Island observational targeting study and enhance operator's understanding of predominate causes of wind variability conditions at the wind facilities. Compromises had to be made with the results from the observation targeting study to accommodate project resource limitations, availability of suitable sites, and other factors. To focus efforts, field sensor deployment activities focused on the wind facility on the southern point of Big Island.
- Research Organization:
- Hawaiian Electric Company
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE EE Office of Wind and Hydropower Technologies (EE-2B)
- DOE Contract Number:
- EE0001379
- OSTI ID:
- 1049314
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/EE0001379-3; TRN: US201217%%641
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Appendix I1-2 to Wind HUI Initiative 1: Field Campaign Report
Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting
Related Subjects
14 SOLAR ENERGY
AVAILABILITY
COMPLEX TERRAIN
FORECASTING
HAWAII
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
PERFORMANCE
RECOMMENDATIONS
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
SENSORS
SIMULATION
TARGETS
VALIDATION
WIND POWER
WIND TURBINE ARRAYS
wind forecasting
wind ramp event forecasting
SODAR
WindNET
observational targeting
remote sensing