Mastering Uncertainty and Risk at Multiple Time Scales in the Future Electrical Grid
- Los Alamos National Laboratory
Today's electrical grids enjoy a relatively clean separation of spatio-temporal scales yielding a compartmentalization of grid design, optimization, control and risk assessment allowing for the use of conventional mathematical tools within each area. In contrast, the future grid will incorporate time-intermittent renewable generation, operate via faster electrical markets, and tap the latent control capability at finer grid modeling scales; creating a fundamentally new set of couplings across spatiotemporal scales and requiring revolutionary advances in mathematics techniques to bridge these scales. One example is found in decade-scale grid expansion planning in which today's algorithms assume accurate load forecasts and well-controlled generation. Incorporating intermittent renewable generation creates fluctuating network flows at the hourly time scale, inherently linking the ability of a transmission line to deliver electrical power to hourly operational decisions. New operations-based planning algorithms are required, creating new mathematical challenges. Spatio-temporal scales are also crossed when the future grid's minute-scale fluctuations in network flows (due to intermittent generation) create a disordered state upon which second-scale transient grid dynamics propagate effectively invalidating today's on-line dynamic stability analyses. Addressing this challenge requires new on-line algorithms that use large data streams from new grid sensing technologies to physically aggregate across many spatial scales to create responsive, data-driven dynamic models. Here, we sketch the mathematical foundations of these problems and potential solutions.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- DOE/LANL
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396
- OSTI ID:
- 1045983
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-12-22820; TRN: US201215%%370
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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