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Title: Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)

Abstract

The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are modeled. Changes in energy intensity in each sector are driven by autonomous technological improvement (price-independent trend), the opportunity for energy-price-sensitive improvements, energy price expectations, and investment behavior. Although this decision-making framework involves more variables than the simplest econometric models, it enables direct comparison of an econometric approach with conservation supply curves from detailed engineering analysis. It also permits explicit consideration of a variety of policy approaches other than price manipulation. The model is tested in terms of historical data for nine manufacturing sectors, and parameters are determined for forecasting purposes. Relatively uniform and satisfactory parameters are obtained from this analysis. In this report, LIEF is also applied to create base-case and demand-side management scenarios to briefly illustrate modeling procedures and outputs.

Authors:
 [1]; ; ;  [2]
  1. Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (US). Dept. of Physics
  2. Argonne National Lab., IL (US)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
OSTI Identifier:
10169987
Report Number(s):
ANL/EAIS/TM-95
ON: DE93016705; TRN: 93:002170
DOE Contract Number:  
W-31109-ENG-38
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Resource Relation:
Other Information: PBD: May 1993
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; 32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION; 99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE; ENERGY CONSUMPTION; FORECASTING; ECONOMETRICS; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; INDUSTRY; PRICES; FOSSIL FUELS; DECISION MAKING; SUPPLY AND DEMAND; ENERGY POLICY; PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS; ENERGY ACCOUNTING; L CODES; 292000; 320301; 990200; SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND FORECASTING; ENERGY SOURCES; MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTERS

Citation Formats

Ross, M H, Thimmapuram, P, Fisher, R E, and Maciorowski, W. Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version). United States: N. p., 1993. Web. doi:10.2172/10169987.
Ross, M H, Thimmapuram, P, Fisher, R E, & Maciorowski, W. Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version). United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/10169987
Ross, M H, Thimmapuram, P, Fisher, R E, and Maciorowski, W. 1993. "Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)". United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/10169987. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/10169987.
@article{osti_10169987,
title = {Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)},
author = {Ross, M H and Thimmapuram, P and Fisher, R E and Maciorowski, W},
abstractNote = {The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are modeled. Changes in energy intensity in each sector are driven by autonomous technological improvement (price-independent trend), the opportunity for energy-price-sensitive improvements, energy price expectations, and investment behavior. Although this decision-making framework involves more variables than the simplest econometric models, it enables direct comparison of an econometric approach with conservation supply curves from detailed engineering analysis. It also permits explicit consideration of a variety of policy approaches other than price manipulation. The model is tested in terms of historical data for nine manufacturing sectors, and parameters are determined for forecasting purposes. Relatively uniform and satisfactory parameters are obtained from this analysis. In this report, LIEF is also applied to create base-case and demand-side management scenarios to briefly illustrate modeling procedures and outputs.},
doi = {10.2172/10169987},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/10169987}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat May 01 00:00:00 EDT 1993},
month = {Sat May 01 00:00:00 EDT 1993}
}