Information bias and lifetime mortality risks of radiation-induced cancer: Low LET radiation

Technical Report · Fri Apr 01 00:00:00 EST 1994

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/10147822· OSTI ID:10147822

Peterson, L. E.; Schull, W. J.; Davis, B. R. ^[1]; Buffler, P. A. ^[2]

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1. Texas Univ., Houston, TX (United States). Health Science Center
2. California Univ., Berkeley, CA (United States). School of Public Health

Additive and multiplicative models of relative risk were used to measure the effect of cancer misclassification and DS86 random errors on lifetime risk projections in the Life Span Study (LSS) of Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors. The true number of cancer deaths in each stratum of the cancer mortality cross-classification was estimated using sufficient statistics from the EM algorithm. Average survivor doses in the strata were corrected for DS86 random error ({sigma}=0.45) by use of reduction factors. Poisson regression was used to model the corrected and uncorrected mortality rates with risks in RERF Report 11 (Part 2) and the BEIR-V Report. Bias due to DS86 random error typically ranged from {minus}15% to {minus}30% for both sexes, and all sites and models. The total bias, including diagnostic misclassification, of excess risk of nonleukemia for exposure to 1 Sv from age 18 to 65 under the non-constant relative project model was {minus}37.1% for males and {minus}23.3% for females. Total excess risks of leukemia under the relative projection model were biased {minus}27.1% for males and {minus}43.4% for females. Thus, nonleukemia risks for 1 Sv from ages 18 to 65 (DRREF=2) increased from 1.91%/Sv to 2.68%/Sv among males and from 3.23%/Sv to 4.92%/Sv among females. Leukemia excess risk increased from 0.87%/Sv to 1.10/Sv among males and from 0.73%/Sv to 1.04/Sv among females. Bias was dependent on the gender, site, correction method, exposure profile and projection model considered. Future studies that use LSS data for US nuclear workers may be downwardly biased if lifetime risk projections are not adjusted for random and systematic errors.

• Research Organization: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Washington, DC (United States). Div. of Regulatory Applications; Texas Univ., Houston, TX (United States). Health Science Center; California Univ., Berkeley, CA (United States). School of Public Health
• Sponsoring Organization: Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)
• OSTI ID: 10147822
• Report Number(s): NUREG/GR-0011; ON: TI94011189; TRN: 94:011981
• Resource Relation: Other Information: PBD: Apr 1994
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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