Risk-based methods applicable to ranking conceptual designs
- Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Sandia National Labs., Livermore, CA (United States)
- Lim and Orzechowski Associates, Alamo, CA (United States)
In Ginichi Taguchi`s latest book on quality engineering, an emphasis is placed on robust design processes in which quality engineering techniques are brought ``upstream,`` that is, they are utilized as early as possible, preferably in the conceptual design stage. This approach was used in a study of possible future safety system designs for weapons. As an experiment, a method was developed for using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) techniques to rank conceptual designs for performance against a safety metric for ultimate incorporation into a Pugh matrix evaluation. This represents a high-level UW application of PRA methods to weapons. As with most conceptual designs, details of the implementation were not yet developed; many of the components had never been built, let alone tested. Therefore, our application of risk assessment methods was forced to be at such a high level that the entire evaluation could be performed on a spreadsheet. Nonetheless, the method produced numerical estimates of safety in a manner that was consistent, reproducible, and scrutable. The results enabled us to rank designs to identify areas where returns on research efforts would be the greatest. The numerical estimates were calibrated against what is achievable by current weapon safety systems. The use of expert judgement is inescapable, but these judgements are explicit and the method is easily implemented on an spreadsheet computer program.
- Research Organization:
- Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC04-94AL85000
- OSTI ID:
- 10105193
- Report Number(s):
- SAND-93-1256C; CONF-940312-44; ON: DE94002920; BR: GB0103012
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 2. Probabilistic safety assessment and management conference (PSAM),San Diego, CA (United States),20-24 Mar 1994; Other Information: PBD: [1993]
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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