WESVA: A decision aid for comparing warhead advanced surety R&D options
Newly designed warheads that incorporate advanced surety concepts can reduce the risks of accidental radiological material dispersal, nuclear detonation, and unauthorized use. But these potential surety benefits entail cost and performance penalties. Present constraints on R&D budgets, time, and allowable nuclear tests also create significant uncertainties as to whether new concepts can be successfully developed and implemented. These factors complicate the decisions involved in selecting surety concepts for more extensive R&D. To help decision makers compare R&D options, we developed a decision aid called Weapon Safety Value Assessment (WESVA). This paper describes WESVA and suggests how a WESVA-like approach can be of interest in other decision-making contexts.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-48
- OSTI ID:
- 10103294
- Report Number(s):
- UCRL-JC-114200; CONF-940312-24; ON: DE94001764; TRN: 94:001334
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 2. Probabilistic safety assessment and management conference (PSAM),San Diego, CA (United States),20-24 Mar 1994; Other Information: PBD: Oct 1993
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
SAFETY ENGINEERING
ORGANIZATIONAL MODELS
SAFETY
COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
DECISION MAKING
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
PROBABILITY
RISK ASSESSMENT
TRANSPORT
STORAGE
MATERIALS HANDLING
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450200
990100
NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS AND EXPLOSIVES
MANAGEMENT