Detonation probabilities of high explosives
The probability of a high explosive violent reaction (HEVR) following various events is an extremely important aspect of estimating accident-sequence frequency for nuclear weapons dismantlement. In this paper, we describe the development of response curves for insults to PBX 9404, a conventional high-performance explosive used in US weapons. The insults during dismantlement include drops of high explosive (HE), strikes of tools and components on HE, and abrasion of the explosive. In the case of drops, we combine available test data on HEVRs and the results of flooring certification tests to estimate the HEVR probability. For other insults, it was necessary to use expert opinion. We describe the expert solicitation process and the methods used to consolidate the responses. The HEVR probabilities obtained from both approaches are compared.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-36
- OSTI ID:
- 100097
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-95-1754; CONF-951135-5; ON: DE95014006; IN: TSA-11-95-R124
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 1995 International mechanical engineering congress and exhibition, San Francisco, CA (United States), 12-17 Nov 1995; Other Information: PBD: [1995]
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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