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Abstract In the event of a potentially catastrophic asteroid impact, with sufficient warning time, deploying a nuclear device remains a powerful option for planetary defense if a kinetic impactor or other means of deflection proves insufficient. Predicting the effectiveness of a potential nuclear deflection or disruption mission depends on accurate multiphysics simulations of the device's X-ray energy deposition into the asteroid and the resulting material ablation. The relevant physics in these simulations span many orders of magnitude, require a variety of different complex physics packages, and are computationally expensive. Having an efficient and accurate way of modeling this system ismore » necessary for exploring a mission's sensitivity to the asteroid's range of physical properties. To expedite future simulations, we present a completed X-ray energy deposition model developed using the radiation-hydrodynamics code Kull that can be used to initiate a nuclear mitigation mission calculation. The model spans a wide variety of possible mission initial conditions: four different asteroid-like materials at a range of porosities, two different source spectra, and a broad range of radiation fluences, source durations, and angles of incidence. Using blowoff momentum as the primary metric, the model-initiated simulation results match the full radiation-hydrodynamics results to within 10%.« less

In 2013, an asteroid with a diameter of approximate 20 m broke up in the atmosphere above the Russian city of Chelyabinsk producing what is known as an airburst event. The event was recorded on video from multiple angles and a 500-kg fragment was recovered from Lake Chebarkul shortly thereafter. These aspects, coupled with the asteroid’s large size, distinguish the Chelyabinsk event as unique. In this study, we use the smoothed particle hydrodynamics method to examine the breakup mode of a Chelyabinsk-sized monolithic asteroid and probe whether a monolithic structure is consistent with observations from the Chelyabinsk event. We modelmore » the object as a homogeneous sphere with properties consistent with Chelyabinsk meteorites. We use planar-2D simulations to test the sensitivity of results to variations in the material model and to qualitatively inspect the cause of crack nucleation and fragmentation. We then compare results from a 3D simulation to observations from the event. Our 3D simulation predicts a burst height within 3 km of the observed peak luminosity suggesting the responsible asteroid may have been monolithic.« less

NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission was the first to demonstrate asteroid deflection, and the mission's Level 1 requirements guided its planetary defense investigations. Here, we summarize DART's achievement of those requirements. On 2022 September 26, the DART spacecraft impacted Dimorphos, the secondary member of the Didymos near-Earth asteroid binary system, demonstrating an autonomously navigated kinetic impact into an asteroid with limited prior knowledge for planetary defense. Months of subsequent Earth-based observations showed that the binary orbital period was changed by –33.24 minutes, with two independent analysis methods each reporting a 1σ uncertainty of 1.4 s. Dynamical models determinedmore » that the momentum enhancement factor, β, resulting from DART's kinetic impact test is between 2.4 and 4.9, depending on the mass of Dimorphos, which remains the largest source of uncertainty. Over five dozen telescopes across the globe and in space, along with the Light Italian CubeSat for Imaging of Asteroids, have contributed to DART's investigations. These combined investigations have addressed topics related to the ejecta, dynamics, impact event, and properties of both asteroids in the binary system. A year following DART's successful impact into Dimorphos, the mission has achieved its planetary defense requirements, although work to further understand DART's kinetic impact test and the Didymos system will continue. In particular, ESA's Hera mission is planned to perform extensive measurements in 2027 during its rendezvous with the Didymos–Dimorphos system, building on DART to advance our knowledge and continue the ongoing international collaboration for planetary defense.« less

NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is the first full-scale test of the kinetic impactor method for asteroid deflection, in which a spacecraft intentionally impacts an asteroid to change its trajectory. DART represents an important first step for planetary defense technology demonstration, providing a realistic assessment of the effectiveness of the kinetic impact approach on a near-Earth asteroid. The momentum imparted to the asteroid is transferred from the impacting spacecraft and enhanced by the momentum of material ejected from the impact site. However, the magnitude of the ejecta contribution is dependent on the material properties of the target. Thesemore » properties, such as strength and shear modulus, are unknown for the DART target asteroid, Dimorphos, as well as most asteroids since such properties are difficult to characterize remotely. This study examines how hydrocode simulations can be used to estimate material properties from information available post-impact, specifically the asteroid size and shape, the velocity and properties of the impacting spacecraft, and the final velocity change imparted to the asteroid. Across >300 three-dimensional simulations varying seven material parameters describing the asteroid, we found many combinations of properties could reproduce a particular asteroid velocity. Additional observations, such as asteroid mass or crater size, are required to further constrain properties like asteroid strength or outcomes like the momentum enhancement provided by impact ejecta. Our results demonstrate the vital importance of having as much knowledge as possible prior to an impact mission, with key material parameters being the asteroid’s mass, porosity, strength, and elastic properties.« less

In the future, a hazardous asteroid will find itself on a collision course with Earth. For asteroids of moderate size or larger, a nuclear device is one of humanity’s only technologies capable of mitigating this threat via deflection on a timescale of less than a decade. This work examined how the output neutron energy from a nuclear device standoff detonation affects the deflection of a notional asteroid that is 300 meters in diameter and composed of silicon dioxide at a bulk density of 1.855 g/cm. 14.1 MeV and 1 MeV neutron energy sources were modeled in MCNP to quantify themore » energy deposition in the asteroid target. The asteroid’s irradiated region was discretized in angle by tracing the rays emanating from the point of detonation and in depth by considering the neutron mean-free-paths. This high-fidelity approach was shown to deviate from previous analytic approximations commonly used for asteroid energy deposition. 50 kt and 1 Mt neutron yields of the energy deposition mappings were imported into a hydrodynamic asteroid model in ALE3D to simulate the deflective response due to blow-off ejecta. Underexplored in literature, changing the neutron energy was found to have up to a 70% impact on deflection performance due to induced differences in the energy deposition profile and in the energy coupling efficiency. The magnitude of energy deposition accounted for most of the observed variation in the asteroid velocity change, making the coupling efficiency more significant than the spatial profile characteristics. These findings are vital for determining the optimal source neutron energy spectrum for asteroid deflection applications.« less

Here, diverting hazardous small bodies on impact trajectories with the Earth can in some circumstances be impossible without risking disrupting them. Disruption is a much more difficult planetary defense scenario to assess, being linked both to the response of the body to shock loading and the much more complicated gravitational dynamics of the fragments in the solar system relative to pure deflection scenarios. In this work we present a new simulation suite built on N-body gravitational methods that solves fragment orbits in the full gravitational system without recourse to more approximate methods. We assess the accuracy of our simulations andmore » the simplifying assumptions we adopt to make the system tractable, and then discuss in more detail several specific, plausible planetary defense scenarios based on real close encounters. We find that disruption can be a very effective planetary defense strategy even for very late (sub-year) interventions, and should be considered an effective backup strategy should preferred methods, which require long warning times, fail.« less

Asteroids and comets have the potential to impact Earth and cause damage at the local to global scale. Deflection or disruption of a potentially hazardous object could prevent future Earth impacts, but due to our limited ability to perform experiments directly on asteroids, our understanding of the process relies upon large-scale hydrodynamic simulations. Related simulations must be vetted through code validation by benchmarking against relevant laboratory-scale, hypervelocity-impact experiments. To this end, we compare simulation results from Spheral, an adaptive smoothed particle hydrodynamics code, to the fragment-mass and velocity data from the 1991 two-stage light gas-gun impact experiment on a basaltmore » sphere target, conducted at Kyoto University by Nakamura and Fujiwara. We find that the simulations are sensitive to the selected strain models, strength models, and material parameters. We find that, by using appropriate choices for these models in conjunction with well-constrained material parameters, the simulations closely resemble with the experimental results. Numerical codes implementing these model and parameter selections may provide new insight into the formation of asteroid families (Michel et al., 2015, https://doi.org/10.2458/azu_uapress_9780816532131-ch018) and predictions of deflection for the Double Asteroid Redirection mission (Stickle et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.09.763).« less

Impacting an asteroid with a spacecraft traveling at high speed delivers an impulsive change in velocity to the body. In certain circumstances, this strategy could be used to deflect a hazardous asteroid, moving its orbital path off of an Earth-impacting course. However, the efficacy of momentum delivery to asteroids by hypervelocity impact is sensitive to both the impact conditions (particularly velocity) and specific characteristics of the target asteroid. We numerically model asteroid response to kinetic impactors under a wide range of initial conditions, using an Adaptive Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics code. Impact velocities spanning 1–30 km/s were investigated, yielding, for amore » particular set of assumptions about the modeled target material, a power-law dependence consistent with a velocity-scaling exponent of μ = 0.44. Target characteristics including equation of state, strength model, porosity, rotational state, and shape were varied, and corresponding changes in asteroid response were documented. Moreover, the kinetic-impact momentum-multiplication factor, β, decreases with increasing asteroid cohesion and increasing porosity. Although increased porosity lowers β, larger porosities result in greater deflection velocities, as a consequence of reduced target masses for asteroids of fixed size. Porosity also lowers disruption risk for kinetic impacts near the threshold of disruption. Including fast (P = 2.5 h) and very fast (P = 100 s) rotation did not significantly alter β but did affect the risk of disruption by the impact event. Asteroid shape is found to influence the efficiency of momentum delivery, as local slope conditions can change the orientation of the crater ejecta momentum vector. Our results emphasize the need for asteroid characterization studies to bracket the range of target conditions expected at near-Earth asteroids while also highlighting some of the principal uncertainties associated with the kinetic-impact deflection strategy.« less