Global-Scale Convergence Obscures Inconsistencies in Soil Carbon Change Predicted by Earth System Models
Soil carbon (C) responses to environmental change represent a major source of uncertainty in the global C cycle. Feedbacks between soil C stocks and climate drivers could impact atmospheric CO2 levels, further altering the climate. Here, we assessed the reliability of Earth system model (ESM) predictions of soil C change using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). ESMs predicted global soil C gains under the high emission scenario, with soils taking up 43.9 Pg (95% CI: 9.2–78.5 Pg) C on average during the 21st century. The variation in global soil C change declined significantlymore »