%AToshiaki Sakai
%ATomoyoshi Takeda
%AHiroshi Soraoka
%AKen Yanagisawa[Tokyo Electric Power Company (Japan)]
%ATadashi Annaka[Tokyo Electric Power Services Co., Ltd, 3-3, Higashiueno 3-Chome, Taito-ku, Tokyo 110-0015 (Japan)]
%D2006%IAmerican Society of Mechanical Engineers - ASME, New York (United States); The ASME Foundation, Inc., Three Park Avenue, New York, NY 10016-5990 (United States)
%K22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS; DESIGN; DIAGRAMS; EVALUATION; HAZARDS; HEIGHT; JAPAN; PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION; PROBABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; SYSTEMS ANALYSIS; TSUNAMIS
%MOSTI ID: 20995669
%PMedium: X; Size: 7 pages
%TDevelopment of a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Japan
%XIt is meaningful for tsunami assessment to evaluate phenomena beyond the design basis as well as seismic design. Because once we set the design basis tsunami height, we still have possibilities tsunami height may exceeds the determined design tsunami height due to uncertainties regarding the tsunami phenomena. Probabilistic tsunami risk assessment consists of estimating for tsunami hazard and fragility of structures and executing system analysis. In this report, we apply a method for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). We introduce a logic tree approach to estimate tsunami hazard curves (relationships between tsunami height and probability of excess) and present an example for Japan. Examples of tsunami hazard curves are illustrated, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard is displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves. The result of PTHA will be used for quantitative assessment of the tsunami risk for important facilities located on coastal area. Tsunami hazard curves are the reasonable input data for structures and system analysis. However the evaluation method for estimating fragility of structures and the procedure of system analysis is now being developed. (authors)
%0Conference
United StatesTRN: US08V0543019629Thu Jun 03 16:29:43 EDT 2010INISEnglish