Prediction of Power System Balancing Requirement and Tail Event
This paper presents a methodology for the prediction of power system balancing requirement and the probability of tail event (large imbalance between generation and load). Maintaining sufficient balancing reserves to match the difference between hourly generation schedule and real-time variable load and intermittent resources, becomes more and more challenging with the increasing penetration of intermittent energy sources. The presented methodology uses a yearly distribution and an hourly distribution of balancing requirement and tail events to provide a high level look at the issue and warn system operators of those hours when problems are most likely to occur. For real-time prediction, a Bayes Net model is constructed to model the statistical relationships between system imbalance and forecast errors, generation schedule control errors and other influential factors. The methodology will be able to provide reference information to system operators in determining the sufficiency of system balancing reserve and taking appropriate control actions.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 988664
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-68522; 400480000; TRN: US201018%%615
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: IEEE PES Transmission and Distribution Conference 2010, 1-7
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Low Probability Tail Event Analysis and Mitigation in BPA Control Area: Task One Report
Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations