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Title: Effects of Projected Transient Changes in Climate on Tennessee Forests

Abstract

This study examines transient effects of projected climate change on the structure and species composition of forests in Tennessee. The climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 were provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) that simulate the range of potential climate conditions for the state. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in the ecoregions by using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the five ecological provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation patterns are more complex with one model projecting wetter summers and two models projecting drier summers. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions in forest stands for the five ecological provinces of Tennessee from 1989 to 2300. These model runs suggest there will be a change in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces with the greatest changes occurring in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Most projections show a decline inmore » total tree biomass followed by recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The changes in forest biomass and composition, as simulated in this study, are likely to have implications on forest economy, tourism, understory conditions, wildlife habitat, mast provisioning, and other services provided by forest systems.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [2]
  1. ORNL
  2. University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
Work for Others (WFO)
OSTI Identifier:
985743
DOE Contract Number:  
DE-AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Science of the Total Environment, The
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 408; Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 0048-9697
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
09 BIOMASS FUELS; BIOMASS; CLIMATES; ECOSYSTEMS; FORESTS; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS; HABITAT; PRECIPITATION; TOURISM; TRANSIENTS; TREES; climate change; ecosystem model; effects of global warming; southeastern forests

Citation Formats

Dale, Virginia H, Tharp, M Lynn, Lannom, Karen O., and Hodges, Donald G. Effects of Projected Transient Changes in Climate on Tennessee Forests. United States: N. p., 2010. Web. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.050.
Dale, Virginia H, Tharp, M Lynn, Lannom, Karen O., & Hodges, Donald G. Effects of Projected Transient Changes in Climate on Tennessee Forests. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.050
Dale, Virginia H, Tharp, M Lynn, Lannom, Karen O., and Hodges, Donald G. 2010. "Effects of Projected Transient Changes in Climate on Tennessee Forests". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.050.
@article{osti_985743,
title = {Effects of Projected Transient Changes in Climate on Tennessee Forests},
author = {Dale, Virginia H and Tharp, M Lynn and Lannom, Karen O. and Hodges, Donald G.},
abstractNote = {This study examines transient effects of projected climate change on the structure and species composition of forests in Tennessee. The climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 were provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) that simulate the range of potential climate conditions for the state. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in the ecoregions by using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the five ecological provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation patterns are more complex with one model projecting wetter summers and two models projecting drier summers. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions in forest stands for the five ecological provinces of Tennessee from 1989 to 2300. These model runs suggest there will be a change in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces with the greatest changes occurring in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Most projections show a decline in total tree biomass followed by recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The changes in forest biomass and composition, as simulated in this study, are likely to have implications on forest economy, tourism, understory conditions, wildlife habitat, mast provisioning, and other services provided by forest systems.},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.050},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/985743}, journal = {Science of the Total Environment, The},
issn = {0048-9697},
number = 8,
volume = 408,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2010},
month = {Fri Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2010}
}