Oil Independence: Achievable National Goal or Empty Slogan?
- ORNL
- U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Planning, Budget and Analysis
- Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)
Oil independence has been a goal of U.S. energy policy for the past 30 years yet has never been rigorously defined. A rigorous, measurable definition is proposed: to reduce the costs of oil dependence to less than 1% of GDP in the next 20 to 25 years, with 95% probability. A simulation model incorporating the possibility of future oil supply disruptions and other sources of uncertainty is used to test whether two alternative energy policy strategies, Business as Usual and an interpretation of the strategy proposed by the National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP), can achieve oil independence for the United States. Business as Usual does not produce oil independence. The augmented NCEP strategy comes close to achieving oil independence for the U.S. economy within the next 20-25 years but more is needed. The success of the strategy appears to be robust regardless of how the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) responds to it. Expected annual savings are estimated to exceed $250 billion per year by 2030.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
- DOE Contract Number:
- DE-AC05-00OR22725
- OSTI ID:
- 978740
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Transportation Research Board's 86th Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, USA, 20070122, 20070125
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
The potential role of a carbon tax in U.S. fiscal reform
Petroleum refining industry of developed capitalist countries in the 1990s