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Title: Measuring Income and Projecting Energy Use

Abstract

Abstract: Energy is a key requirement for a healthy, productive life and a major driver of the emissions leading to an increasingly warm planet. The implications of a doubling and redoubling of per capita incomes over the remainder of this century for energy use are a critical input into understanding the magnitude of the carbon management problem. A substantial controversy about how the Special Report on Emssions Scenarios (SRES) measured income and the potential implications of how income was measured for long term levels of energy use is revisited again in the McKibbin, Pearce and Stegman article appearing elsewhere in this issue. The recent release of a new set of purchasing power estimates of national income, and the preparations for creating new scenarios to support the IPCC’s fifth assessment highlight the importance of the issues which have arisen surrounding income and energy use. Comparing the 1993 and 2005 ICP results on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) based measures of income reveals that not only do the 2005 ICP estimates share the same issue of common growth rates for real income as measured by PPP and US $, but the lack of coherence in the estimates of PPP incomes, especially for developingmore » countries raises yet another obstacle to resolving the best way to measure income. Further, the common use of an income term to mediate energy demand (as in the Kaya identity) obscures an underlying reality about per capita energy demands, leading to unreasonable estimates of the impact of changing income measures and of the recent high GDP growth rates in India and China. Significant new research is required to create both a reasonable set of GDP growth rates and long term levels of energy use.« less

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
973725
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-68168
Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009; CLCHDX; KP1703030; TRN: US1002012
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Climatic Change, 97(1-2):49-58
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 97; Journal Issue: 1-2; Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS; CARBON; DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; ENERGY DEMAND; INCOME; MANAGEMENT; PARITY

Citation Formats

Pitcher, Hugh M. Measuring Income and Projecting Energy Use. United States: N. p., 2009. Web. doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9696-x.
Pitcher, Hugh M. Measuring Income and Projecting Energy Use. United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9696-x
Pitcher, Hugh M. 2009. "Measuring Income and Projecting Energy Use". United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9696-x.
@article{osti_973725,
title = {Measuring Income and Projecting Energy Use},
author = {Pitcher, Hugh M},
abstractNote = {Abstract: Energy is a key requirement for a healthy, productive life and a major driver of the emissions leading to an increasingly warm planet. The implications of a doubling and redoubling of per capita incomes over the remainder of this century for energy use are a critical input into understanding the magnitude of the carbon management problem. A substantial controversy about how the Special Report on Emssions Scenarios (SRES) measured income and the potential implications of how income was measured for long term levels of energy use is revisited again in the McKibbin, Pearce and Stegman article appearing elsewhere in this issue. The recent release of a new set of purchasing power estimates of national income, and the preparations for creating new scenarios to support the IPCC’s fifth assessment highlight the importance of the issues which have arisen surrounding income and energy use. Comparing the 1993 and 2005 ICP results on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) based measures of income reveals that not only do the 2005 ICP estimates share the same issue of common growth rates for real income as measured by PPP and US $, but the lack of coherence in the estimates of PPP incomes, especially for developing countries raises yet another obstacle to resolving the best way to measure income. Further, the common use of an income term to mediate energy demand (as in the Kaya identity) obscures an underlying reality about per capita energy demands, leading to unreasonable estimates of the impact of changing income measures and of the recent high GDP growth rates in India and China. Significant new research is required to create both a reasonable set of GDP growth rates and long term levels of energy use.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-009-9696-x},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/973725}, journal = {Climatic Change, 97(1-2):49-58},
issn = {0165-0009},
number = 1-2,
volume = 97,
place = {United States},
year = {Sun Nov 01 00:00:00 EDT 2009},
month = {Sun Nov 01 00:00:00 EDT 2009}
}