Impacts of climatic change on forest structure in the Midwestern Great Lakes region: An integrated gap model and geographical information system (GIS) approach
- Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States)
The transient effects of an 80-year climate change scenario on 56 tree species are evaluated within the regional forested landscape matrix of Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The JABOWA-II forest growth model was integrated with a GIS housing several federally-produced databases which were vital for input file development. A 4km{sup 2} resolution enabled high parameter specificity for each of the 54,345 representative 100m{sup 2} plots. Ten iterations of simulated growth response at each site followed model calibration. Changes in relative regional dominance and shifts in population centroids over two periods (1981-2020 and 2020-2060) indicated that most responses were species-specific. Notable among these were the substantial dominance increases of Populus tremuloides and Quercus alba from 1981-2020. Shared response patterns included conifers` centroid shifts to the northwest and overall dominance reductions.
- OSTI ID:
- 95780
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-9507129-; ISSN 0012-9623; TRN: 95:004728-0045
- Journal Information:
- Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America, Vol. 76, Issue 2; Conference: 80. anniversary of the transdisciplinary nature of ecology, Snowbird, UT (United States), 30 Jul - 3 Aug 1995; Other Information: PBD: Jun 1995
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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