Impacts of Regional Climate Change on Biogenic Emissions and Air Quality
Regional air quality simulations are conducted for four summers (2001, 2002, 2051, and 2052) to examine the sensitivity of air quality to potential regional climate change in the U.S. In response to the predicted warmer climate in 2051/2052, emissions of isoprene and terpene increase by 20-92.1% and 20-56%, respectively, over most of the domain. Surface O3, which is sensitive to changes in temperature and solar radiation but relatively insensitive to changes in PBL height and cloud fraction, increase by up to 19-20%. PM2.5, its compositions, and visibility exhibit an overall negative sensitivity (decrease by up to 40%), resulting from the competition of the negative temperature effect and positive emission/temperature effects. While the response of dry deposition is governed by the negative sensitivity of surface resistances, that of wet deposition is either positive or negative, depending on the relative dominancy of changes in PM2.5 and precipitation. Overall the net climatic effect dominates changes in O3, PM2.5, wet and total deposition, and the net biogenic emission effect is important for isoprene, organic matter, visibility, and dry deposition over several regions. Models that do not include secondary organic aerosol formation from isoprene photooxidation may underestimate by at least 20% the air quality responses to future climate changes over many areas of the modeling domain. Both regional climate and air quality exhibit interannual variability, particularly in temperature, isoprene emissions, and PM2.5 concentrations, indicating a need for long-term simulations to predict future air quality.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 946666
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-59607; 400408000; TRN: US200903%%552
- Journal Information:
- Journal of Geophysical Research. D. (Atmospheres), 113:D18310, Vol. 113
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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