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Title: Simulations of Aerosol Indirect Effect for IPCC Emissions Scenarios

Simulations of Aerosol Indirect Effect for IPCC Emissions Scenarios We used a fully coupled climate/chemistry model together with the newly developed IPCC anthropogenic emissions to simulate the climate variation by aerosols. The range of aerosol forcing by the primary indirect effect in next century is estimated between -0.49 and -1.20 W m{sup -2}. This range does not include the potential natural emissions feedbacks associated with climate change. Since sea salt emissions are projected to increase from 88.5 Tg of Na for 2000 to 155 Tg of Na for 2100, the increased aerosol forcing from emissions feedbacks would be mainly over the ocean in southern hemisphere where the maximum is located. More simulations will be performed in order to identify the emissions feedbacks from the total feedbacks. This will provide us a more quantitative range for the aerosol climate forcing as compared to those from greenhouse gases. The magnitudes of climate feedbacks calculated here are subject to uncertainties from climate system. Uncertainty can also arise from the model configuration where the sea surface temperatures are prescribed instead of using a mixed-layer ocean model or a full ocean general circulation model. To quantity these uncertainties, sensitivities tests will be performed in a future study.
Authors: ; ;
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:791412
Report Number(s):UCRL-JC-135993
TRN: US200302%%40
DOE Contract Number:W-7405-Eng-48
Resource Type:Conference
Data Type:
Resource Relation:Conference: American Meteorological Society 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies, Long Beach, CA (US), 01/09/2000--01/14/2000; Other Information: PBD: 7 Oct 1999
Research Org:Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (US)
Sponsoring Org:USDOE Office of Defense Programs (DP) (US)
Country of Publication:United States
Language:English
Subject: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; AEROSOLS; CLIMATES; CONFIGURATION; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS; GREENHOUSE GASES; SEAS; SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE