Application of quantitative uncertainty analysis for human health risk assessment at Rocky Flats

Conference · Fri Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 1993 · Transactions of the American Nuclear Society; (United States)

OSTI ID:7131858

Duncan, F L.W.; Gordon, J W ^[1]; Smith, D ^[2]; Singh, S P ^[3]

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1. Dames Moore, Denver, CO (United States)
2. EG G Rocky Flats Inc., Golden, CO (United States)
3. Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

The characterization of uncertainty is an important component of the risk assessment process. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) [open quotes]Guidance on Risk Characterization for Risk Managers and Risk Assessors,[close quotes] point estimates of risk [open quotes]do not fully convey the range of information considered and used in developing the assessment.[close quotes] Furthermore, the guidance states that the Monte Carlo simulation may be used to estimate descriptive risk percentiles. To provide information about the uncertainties associated with the reasonable maximum exposure (RME) estimate and the relation of the RME to other percentiles of the risk distribution for Operable Unit 1 (OU-1) at Rocky Flats, uncertainties were identified and quantitatively evaluated. Monte Carlo simulation is a technique that can be used to provide a probability function of estimated risk using random values of exposure factors and toxicity values in an exposure scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation involves assigning a joint probability distribution to the input variables (i.e., exposure factors) of an exposure scenario. Next, a large number of independent samples from the assigned joint distribution are taken and the corresponding outputs calculated. Methods of statistical inference are used to estimate, from the output sample, some parameters of the output distribution, such as percentiles and the expected value.

• OSTI ID: 7131858
• Report Number(s): CONF-931160-; CODEN: TANSAO
• Journal Information: Transactions of the American Nuclear Society; (United States), Vol. 69; Conference: American Nuclear Society (ANS) winter meeting, San Francisco, CA (United States), 14-18 Nov 1993; ISSN 0003-018X
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS
HUMAN POPULATIONS
RADIATION DOSES
ROCKY FLATS PLANT
RISK ASSESSMENT
MONTE CARLO METHOD
RADIATION DOSE DISTRIBUTIONS
RADIATION HAZARDS
UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE
US EPA
CALCULATION METHODS
DOSES
HAZARDS
HEALTH HAZARDS
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
POPULATIONS
US AEC
US DOE
US ERDA
US ORGANIZATIONS
054000* - Nuclear Fuels- Health & Safety