Compensated Box-Jenkins transfer function for short term load forecast
- Oklahoma Univ., Norman, OK (United States). School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
In the past years, the Box-Jenkins ARIMA method and the Box-Jenkins transfer function method (BJTF) have been among the most commonly used methods for short term electrical load forecasting. But when there exists a sudden change in the temperature, both methods tend to exhibit larger errors in the forecast. This paper demonstrates that the load forecasting errors resulting from either the BJ ARIMA model or the BJTF model are not simply white noise, but rather well-patterned noise, and the patterns in the noise can be used to improve the forecasts. Thus a compensated Box-Jenkins transfer method (CBJTF) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the load prediction. Some case studies have been made which result in about a 14-33% reduction of the root mean square (RMS) errors of the forecasts, depending on the compensation time period as well as the compensation method used.
- OSTI ID:
- 7116900
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-920432-; CODEN: PAPWA
- Journal Information:
- Proceedings of the American Power Conference; (United States), Vol. 54:2; Conference: 54. annual American power conference, Chicago, IL (United States), 13-15 Apr 1992; ISSN 0097-2126
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY
LOAD MANAGEMENT
POWER SYSTEMS
PERFORMANCE TESTING
CALCULATION METHODS
ENERGY MODELS
FORECASTING
NOISE
PLANNING
RELIABILITY
TRANSFER FUNCTIONS
FUNCTIONS
INDUSTRY
MANAGEMENT
TESTING
240100* - Power Systems- (1990-)
296000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Electric Power
290100 - Energy Planning & Policy- Energy Analysis & Modeling
292000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply
Demand & Forecasting