Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis
The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment.
- Research Organization:
- California Univ., Los Angeles, CA (USA)
- OSTI ID:
- 7078029
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Thesis (Ph. D.)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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37 INORGANIC
ORGANIC
PHYSICAL AND ANALYTICAL CHEMISTRY
COMBUSTION
COMPUTER CODES
C CODES
CONTROL ROOMS
FIRE HAZARDS
RISK ASSESSMENT
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
IGNITION
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
CHEMICAL REACTIONS
HAZARDS
NUCLEAR FACILITIES
OXIDATION
POWER PLANTS
THERMAL POWER PLANTS
THERMOCHEMICAL PROCESSES
220200* - Nuclear Reactor Technology- Components & Accessories
400800 - Combustion
Pyrolysis
& High-Temperature Chemistry