A real-time implementation of short-term load forecasting for distribution power systems
- Advanced Control Systems, Inc., Norcross, GA (United States)
This paper presents a practical real-time implementation of weather adaptive short-term load forecasting for distribution power utilities. The implementation is accomplished by utilizing a comprehensive load forecasting model consisting of time series, nonlinear load-weather functions and a residual load function represented by an ARMA (Auto-Regressive Moving Average) model. The model parameters are estimated and updated on-line using the WRLS (Weighted Recursive Least Squares) algorithm. A variable forgetting factor (VFF) technique is incorporated in the WRLS algorithm for improved model tracking and numerical performance in real-time operation. A software package, STLF, is developed with the proposed implementation method for distribution power utilities. Practical operation of the STLF in several power utilities has demonstrated great success. Off-line testing and on-line operation has consistently shown satisfactory performance with the mean absolute error (MAE) mostly less than 2% for a less than 24-hour ahead forecast and less than 2.5% for a less than 168-hour ahead forecast.
- OSTI ID:
- 7009588
- Journal Information:
- IEEE Transactions on Power Systems (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers); (United States), Vol. 9:2; ISSN 0885-8950
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
POWER DEMAND
FORECASTING
POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS
REAL TIME SYSTEMS
S CODES
COMPUTER CODES
DEMAND
240100* - Power Systems- (1990-)
292000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
296000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Electric Power