Technology choice in a least-cost expansion analysis framework: The impact of gas prices, planning horizon, and system characteristics
The current outlook for new capacity addition by electric utilities is uncertain and tenuous. Regardless of the amount, it is inevitable that new capacity will be needed in the 1990s and beyond. The fundamental question about the addition capacity requirements centers on technology choice and the factors influencing the decision process. We examined technology choices in 10 representative power pools with a dynamic optimization expansion model, the Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP) Package. These 10 power pools were determined to be representative on the basis of a cluster analysis conducted on all 26 power pools in the United States. A least-cost expansion plan was determined for each power pool with three candidate technologies--natural gas combustion turbine (CT), natural gas combined cycle (NGCC), and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC)--three alternative gas price tracks, and two planning horizons between the years 1995 and 2020. This paper summarizes the analysis framework and presents results for Power Pool 1, the American Electric Power (AEP) service territory. 7 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.
- Research Organization:
- Argonne National Lab., IL (USA)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- DOE/FE
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-31109-ENG-38
- OSTI ID:
- 6986841
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-9004133-3; ON: DE90011145
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: American power conference, Chicago, IL (USA), 23-25 Apr 1990
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
ELECTRIC POWER
POWER GENERATION
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
NATURAL GAS
PRICES
CAPACITY
COMBINED CYCLES
COST
DECISION MAKING
ECONOMICS
FOSSIL-FUEL POWER PLANTS
GASIFICATION
OPERATION
PLANNING
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
POWER
POWER PLANTS
PUBLIC UTILITIES
THERMAL POWER PLANTS
THERMOCHEMICAL PROCESSES
THERMODYNAMIC CYCLES
200600* - Fossil-Fueled Power Plants- Economic
Industrial
& Business Aspects- (1990-)