Global climate change and tropical cyclones
- Univ. College London (United Kingdom)
- Bureau of Meteorology Research Center, Melbourne (Australia)
- Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)
- Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom)
- Pennsylvania State Univ., College Park, PA (United States)
- Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)
- Univ. of Guam, Mangilao (Guam)
This paper offers an overview of the authors's studies during a specialized international symposium where they aimed at making an objective assessment of whether climate changes, consequent on an expected doubling of atmospheric CO[sub 2] in the next six or seven decades, are likely to increase significantly the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones (TC). Out of three methodologies available for addressing the question they employ two, discarding the third for reasons set out in the appendix. In the first methodology, the authors enumerate reasons why, in tropical oceans, the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) suggested by climate change models might be expected to affect either (i) TC frequency, because a well-established set of six conditions for TC formation include a condition that SST should exceed 26[degrees]C, or (ii) TC intensity, because this is indicated by thermodynamic analysis to depend critically on the temperature at which energy transfer to air near the sea surface takes place. But careful study of both suggestions indicates that the expected effects of increased SST would be largely self-limiting (i) because the other five conditions strictly control how far the band of latitudes for TC formation can be further widened, and (ii) because intense winds at the sea surface may receive their energy input at a temperature significantly depressed by evaporation of spray, and possibly through sea surface cooling. In the second methodology, the authors study available historical records that have very large year-to-year variability in TC statistics. They find practically no consistent statistical relationships with temperature anomalies; also, a thorough analysis of how the El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle influences the frequency and distribution of TCs shows any direct effects of local SST changes to be negligible. 28 refs., 4 figs.
- OSTI ID:
- 6876432
- Journal Information:
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; (United States), Vol. 75:11; ISSN 0003-0007
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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