A stochastic model for estimating human carrying capacity in Brazil's Transamazon Highway colonization area
Human carrying capacity for tropical agricultural populations can be estimated with a computer simulation of the agroecosystem. A stochastic model is developed for estimating carrying capacity in one of the government-directed small farmer settlement projects along Brazil's Transamazon Highway. Carrying capacity is operationally defined in terms of an empirically computed relationship between population density and probability of colonist failure with respect to various criteria. When high population density leads failure probability to exceed a maximum acceptable level, population can be considered to be above carrying capacity. Colonist failure probabilities are those that are sustainable over a long period of simulated years. High variability in crop yields appears to have a strong effect on failure probability based on comparison of deterministic and stochastic runs of the simulations. Failure probabilities are raised by variability at low population densities, but are lowered at extremely high densities where most colonists would fail in an ''average'' year. Effects can be tested for colonists with different backgrounds or with differing agricultural practices such as follow times. Failure probabilities in standard runs are higher than those considered acceptable to government planners at all population densities simulated in the present study's stochastic runs (lowest density 24 persons/km/sup 2/), thus lending support to the informal impression of many that the carrying capacity of most of Amazonia's uplands is low.
- Research Organization:
- National Institute for Research in Amazon-INPA, Amazonas
- OSTI ID:
- 6861804
- Journal Information:
- Hum. Ecol.; (United States), Vol. 13:3
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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POLICY AND ECONOMY
AGRICULTURE
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
AMAZON RIVER
LAND USE
BRAZIL
ROADS
CROPS
HUMAN POPULATIONS
LIMITING VALUES
PLANNING
POPULATION DENSITY
POPULATION DYNAMICS
PRODUCTIVITY
STATISTICAL MODELS
STOCHASTIC PROCESSES
TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
ECOSYSTEMS
INDUSTRY
LATIN AMERICA
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
POPULATIONS
RIVERS
SOUTH AMERICA
STREAMS
SURFACE WATERS
290400* - Energy Planning & Policy- Energy Resources