Probability models for theater nuclear warfare. Final report, June 1988-September 1989

Technical Report · Fri Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 1989

OSTI ID:6812451

Youngren, M A

This paper proposes specific probabilistic approaches to address several major problems associated with the representation of tactical nuclear warfare at the theater level. The first problem is identifying the locations of small units (potential nuclear targets) such as companies or battalions within theater-level conventional scenarios or model outputs. Current approaches to identifying these small unit locations fail to take into account the variability that might be realized in any specific battle. A two-dimensional multivariate model is proposed to describe uncertainty about the precise location of the potential targets. The second major problem lies in the interface between theater-level nuclear analyses and conventional battle expected value simulations. An expected value model demands a single input to represent the effect of a nuclear exchange. However, a theater-level nuclear exchange may generate many different outcomes which will have significantly different effects. The probability models described in this paper may be used as a research tool to estimate the sensitivity of exchange outcomes to various data and assumptions, as a surrogate for detailed, complex simulation models; or as an estimator of the sample space of all possible outcomes of a theater nuclear exchange.

• Research Organization: Army Concepts Analysis Agency, Bethesda, MD (USA)
• OSTI ID: 6812451
• Report Number(s): AD-A-219192/2/XAB; CAA-RP-89-3
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
WARFARE
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
IDENTIFICATION SYSTEMS
MILITARY STRATEGY
MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
POSITIONING
PROBABILITY
PROGRESS REPORT
RESEARCH PROGRAMS
SENSITIVITY
SIMULATION
TARGETS
TWO-DIMENSIONAL CALCULATIONS
DOCUMENT TYPES
MATHEMATICS
STATISTICS
WEAPONS
450400* - Military Technology
Weaponry
& National Defense- Nuclear & Radiological Warfare- (1990-)