Change in global temperature: A statistical analysis

Journal Article · Mon Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 1993 · Journal of Climate; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<0546:CIGTAS>2.0.CO;2· OSTI ID:6438109

Richards, G R ^[1]

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1. National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, DC (United States)

This paper investigates several issues relating to global climatic change using statistical techniques that impose minimal restrictions on the data. The main findings are as follows: (1) The global temperature increase since the last century is a systematic development. (2) Short-term variations in temperature do not have long-lasting effects on the final realizations of the series over time, stochastic perturbations dissipate and temperature reverts to trend. (3) Multivariate tests for causality demonstrate that atmospheric CO[sub 2] is a significant forcing factor. The implied change in temperature with respect to a doubling of atmospheric CO[sub 2] lies in a range of 2.17[degrees] to 2.57[degrees]C, with a mean value of 2.34[degrees]C. The contributions of solar irradiance and volcanic loading are much smaller. (4) In a multivariate system, shocks to forcing factors generate stochastic cycles in temperature comparable to the results from unforced simulations of climatological models. (5) Extrapolation of regression equations predict changes in global temperature that are marginally lower than the results from climatological simulation models.

• OSTI ID: 6438109
• Journal Information: Journal of Climate; (United States), Vol. 6:3; ISSN 0894-8755
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE
ANNUAL VARIATIONS
CLIMATIC CHANGE
GLOBAL ASPECTS
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY
CARBON DIOXIDE
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
SOLAR RADIATION
TEMPERATURE MONITORING
VOLCANOES
CARBON COMPOUNDS
CARBON OXIDES
CHALCOGENIDES
CHEMISTRY
MONITORING
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
RADIATIONS
STELLAR RADIATION
VARIATIONS
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