Evaluating R and D options under uncertainty. Volume 1. Pulverized-coal development strategies. Final report

Technical Report · Sat Aug 01 00:00:00 EDT 1981

OSTI ID:6297959

Borison, A B; Judd, B R; Morris, P A; Walters, E C

A quantitative framework was developed for examining the appropriate emphasis for research funding aimed at improving electrical power generation technologies. The methodology explicitly considers the multiple objectives of research, the uncertainty in research outcomes, and the market use of an improved technology in the context of other competitive power generation technologies. The methodology was applied in EPRI's Coal Combustion Systems (CCS) Division to the current pulverized coal technology. The application addressed the relative advantages and overall benefits of incremental funding in three general research areas: capital cost, reliability, and performance. The analysis concludes that the benefits of incremental funding in the capital cost area appear to dominate the benefits in the reliability and performance areas. Furthermore, the net expected value of incremental pulverized coal research funding is high. These results are demonstrated to hold over a wide range of assumptions.

• Research Organization: Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., Menlo Park, CA (USA)
• OSTI ID: 6297959
• Report Number(s): EPRI-EA-1964(Vol.1); ON: DE81904241
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS
FOSSIL-FUEL POWER PLANTS
FINANCING
POWER GENERATION
DECISION MAKING
PLANNING
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
CAPITALIZED COST
COAL FINES
PERFORMANCE
RELIABILITY
RESEARCH PROGRAMS
COST
POWER PLANTS
THERMAL POWER PLANTS
296001* - Energy Planning & Policy- Electric Power Generation- (-1989)
200100 - Fossil-Fueled Power Plants- Power Plants & Power Generation