An evaluation of the real-time tropical cyclone forecast skill of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System in the western North Pacific

Journal Article · Mon Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 1993 · Weather and Forecasting; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1993)008<0003:AEOTRT>2.0.CO;2· OSTI ID:6288220

Fiorino, M; Goerss, J S; Jensen, J J; Harrison, Jr, E J ^[1]

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1. NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States) Naval Research Lab., Monterey, CA (United States) Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center, Monterey, CA (United States) ARC Professional Services Group, Inc., Landover, MD (United States)

The paper evaluates the meteorological quality and operational utility of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) in forecasting tropical cyclones. It is shown that the model can provide useful predictions of motion and formation on a real-time basis in the western North Pacific. The meterological characteristics of the NOGAPS tropical cyclone predictions are evaluated by examining the formation of low-level cyclone systems in the tropics and vortex structure in the NOGAPS analysis and verifying 72-h forecasts. The adjusted NOGAPS track forecasts showed equitable skill to the baseline aid and the dynamical model. NOGAPS successfully predicted unusual equatorward turns for several straight-running cyclones. 35 refs.

• OSTI ID: 6288220
• Journal Information: Weather and Forecasting; (United States), Vol. 8:1; ISSN 0882-8156
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
STORMS
FORECASTING
TROPICAL REGIONS
WEATHER
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
EARTH ATMOSPHERE
SPATIAL RESOLUTION
VORTICES
DISASTERS
RESOLUTION
SIMULATION
540110*
990200 - Mathematics &amp; Computers