Short term load forecasting of Taiwan power system using a knowledge-based expert system

Journal Article · Thu Nov 01 00:00:00 EST 1990 · IEEE Transactions on Power Systems (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers); (USA)

OSTI ID:6074964

Ho, K L; Hsu, Y Y; Chen, C F; Lee, T E ^[1]; Liang, C C; Lai, T S; Chen, K K ^[2]

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1. National Taiwan Univ., Taipei (Taiwan). Dept. of Electrical Engineering
2. System Operation Department, Taiwan Power Company, Taipei (TW)

A knowledge-based expert system is proposed for the short term load forecasting of Taiwan power system. The developed expert system, which was implemented on a personal computer, was written in PROLOG using a 5-year data base. To benefit from the expert knowledge and experience of the system operator, eleven different load shapes, each with different means of load calculations, are established. With these load shapes at hand, some peculiar load characteristics pertaining to Taiwan Power Company can be taken into account. The special load types considered by the expert system include the extremely low load levels during the week of the Chinese New Year, the special load characteristics of the days following a tropical storm or a typhoon, the partial shutdown of certain factories on Saturdays, and the special event caused by a holiday on Friday or on Tuesday, etc. A characteristic feature of the proposed knowledge-based expert system is that it is easy to add new information and new rules to the knowledge base. To illustrate the effectiveness of the presented expert system, short-term load forecasting is performed on Taiwan power system by using both the developed algorithm and the conventional Box-Jenkins statistical method. It is found that a mean absolute error of 2.52% for a year is achieved by the expert system approach as compared to an error of 3.86% by the statistical method.

• OSTI ID: 6074964
• Journal Information: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers); (USA), Vol. 5:4; ISSN 0885-8950
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
POWER SYSTEMS
EXPERT SYSTEMS
TAIWAN
FORECASTING
KNOWLEDGE BASE
LOAD MANAGEMENT
PROLOG
ASIA
ENERGY SYSTEMS
ISLANDS
MANAGEMENT
PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES
240100* - Power Systems- (1990-)
990200 - Mathematics & Computers
296000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Electric Power
290100 - Energy Planning & Policy- Energy Analysis & Modeling