Economics of fuel ethanol production in US agriculture: a national linear programming model with projections to the year 2010
A food versus fuel policy dilemma exists concerning the extent of structural changes in US agriculture that would occur in response to fuel ethanol production from crops in the future. Limitations of previous analyses necessitates further study of this resource allocation issue. The purpose was to determine whether ethanol production from US agricultural resources will be an economically attractive technology in the future. Criteria include energy balance impacts, food, feed and fiber price and consumption impacts, balance of payments impacts, and income changes. Results for the base scenario (ranges in parentheses) relative to the case without ethanol technology available are as follows. Annual ethanol output is 38 (4-86) billion gallons, or 20 (2-54)% of liquid fuel demand. Net energy production is 4.9 (.5-11.2) quads for liquid energy. The domestic retail food price index increases by 4 (1-14)%. Net exports increase 45.7 (5.4-141.6) billion dollars. Crop land rent increases 12.6 (3.1-60.7) billion dollars and sector value-added increases 36.7 (3.8-85.9) billion dollars. Most ethanol is produced from corn, the rest by sugar beets and other grains. Much corn processing to ethanol jointly produces vegetable oil. Corn acreage increases substantially at the expense largely of soybeans and sorghum. Livestock rations incorporate 24 (3-49)% ethanol coproduct feeds.
- OSTI ID:
- 6010013
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Thesis (Ph. D.)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
AGRICULTURE
ETHANOL FUELS
ENERGY MODELS
PRODUCTION
USA
CROPS
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
FOOD
LINEAR PROGRAMMING
ALCOHOL FUELS
ECONOMICS
FUELS
INDUSTRY
NORTH AMERICA
PROGRAMMING
SYNTHETIC FUELS
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