Climate change models and forest research
- Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)
Sophisticated climate models have projected that global warming of 1.5[degrees]-4.5[degrees]C will take place over a period of 50-100 years (Bretherton et al. 1990). They also predict changes in the global water cycle in response to this warming. Some regions could become wetter while others become drier. Seasonal patterns of precipitation would likely change. Although historical and paleoclimatic records provide examples of a warmer earth in some geographic locations, other regions could experience conditions unlike those of any period in the earth's history (Cooperative Holocene Mapping Project 1988). General circulation models (GCM) offer one means of obtaining a portrait of what the climatological future holds based on our current understanding of the global environment. GCMs are powerful tools, but our knowledge of the processes and interactions that they attempt to model is incomplete. As many as 19 GCMs have been identified (Randall et al. 1992). No particular model can hope to be completely accurate; and, in fact, no two are in complete agreement concerning the present climate of our world. Nevertheless, policy recommendations must be made with the information available. Although the perfect climate forecast is still far in the future, we know enough to be able to make responsible use of the data produced by GCMs. Responsible use requires knowing which predictions have been evaluated against historical records and the degree to which processes critical to forest assessments are explicitly modeled (or missing) from a particular GCM. These insights can guide the scientist in selecting appropriate GCMs, using their predictions in particular applications, and interpreting the final results. 17 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs.
- OSTI ID:
- 6003937
- Journal Information:
- Journal of Forestry; (United States), Vol. 91:9; ISSN 0022-1201
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Climate data, analysis and models for the study of natural variability and anthropogenic change
Related Subjects
FORESTS
RESEARCH PROGRAMS
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS
CLIMATE MODELS
CLIMATIC CHANGE
FORECASTING
GLOBAL ASPECTS
HISTORICAL ASPECTS
PALEOCLIMATOLOGY
SEASONAL VARIATIONS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
PALEONTOLOGY
VARIATIONS
560400* - Other Environmental Pollutant Effects