Dry-bean production under climate change conditions in the north of Argentina: Risk assessment and economic implications
This study evaluates the potential effect of climate change on Dry-bean production in Argentina, combining climate models, a crop productivity model and a yield response model estimation of climate variables on crop yields. The study was carried out in the North agricultural regions of Jujuy, Salta, Santiago del Estero and Tucuman which include the largest areas of Argentina where dry beans are grown as a high input crop. The paper combines the output from a crop model with different techniques of analysis. The scenarios used in this study were generated from the output of two General Circulation Models (GCMs): the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model (GISS) and the Canadian Climate Change Model (CCCM). The study also includes a preliminary evaluation of the potential changes in monetary returns taking into account the possible variability of yields and prices, using mean-Gini stochastic dominance (MGSD). The results suggest that large climate change may have a negative impact on the Argentine agriculture sector, due to the high relevance of this product in the export sector. The difference negative effect depends on the varieties of dry bean and also the General Circulation Model scenarios considered for double levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
- OSTI ID:
- 577220
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-970522-; TRN: 98:000898-0036
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 8. global warming international conference and expo, New York, NY (United States), 25-28 May 1997; Other Information: PBD: 1997; Related Information: Is Part Of 8th Global warming international conference and exposition; PB: 156 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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