Analyzing country risk: estimating the probability of external debt repudiation in the post-oil-embargo decade
The discussion is divided into two parts. Part one is devoted to a review of the topic of assessing the likelihood of debt servicing difficulties by borrower nations by first tracing the growth of international bank lending activities by US commercial banks, followed by a general discussion of the international debt crisis and a brief survey of some of the conventional approaches employed by many international institutions to assess overseas lending risk. Part one continues with a survey of a variety of social, economic, and political considerations incorporated into the risk evaluation process and concludes with a discussion of how these factors are integrated into the microeconomics of international bank lending. Part two of this study discusses specifically the use of logit analysis as a tool for evaluating country risk under alternative subset data specifications. The paper concludes with a discussion of the possible presence of dynamic elements in the rescheduling process which may ultimately help to improve upon the predictive performance of the logit model.
- Research Organization:
- City Univ. of New York, NY (USA)
- OSTI ID:
- 5768857
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Thesis (Ph. D.)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
DEBT COLLECTION
PETROLEUM
PRICES
ECONOMETRICS
OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
OIL-IMPORTING COUNTRIES
POLITICAL ASPECTS
RISK ASSESSMENT
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
ECONOMICS
ENERGY SOURCES
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS
020700* - Petroleum- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
290200 - Energy Planning & Policy- Economics & Sociology
294002 - Energy Planning & Policy- Petroleum