Forecasting for energy and chemical decision analysis

Conference · Wed Aug 01 00:00:00 EDT 1984 · AIChE Natl. Meet.; (United States)

OSTI ID:5765574

Cazalet, E G

This paper focuses on uncertainty and bias in forecasts used for major energy and chemical investment decisions. Probability methods for characterizing uncertainty in the forecast are reviewed. Sources of forecasting bias are classified based on the results of relevant psychology research. Examples are drawn from the energy and chemical industry to illustrate the value of explicit characterization of uncertainty and reduction of bias in forecasts.

• Research Organization: Decision Focus Inc., Los Altos, CA
• OSTI ID: 5765574
• Report Number(s): CONF-840828-
• Journal Information: AIChE Natl. Meet.; (United States), Vol. 49D; Conference: International synfuels policies and technologies symposium, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 19 Aug 1984
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
03 NATURAL GAS
CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
DECISION MAKING
INVESTMENT
MARKET
FORECASTING
NATURAL GAS
NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY
PETROCHEMICALS
PETROLEUM
PETROLEUM INDUSTRY
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
ECONOMICS
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
INDUSTRY
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
020700* - Petroleum- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
030600 - Natural Gas- Economic
Industrial
& Business Aspects