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Title: Sectoral shifts and aggregate unemployment

Abstract

Some recent research has taken the view that sectoral or industry-specific shocks significantly affect aggregate unemployment by increasing the amount of inter-industry labor reallocation required. The empirical evidence for this view rests on the finding that during the 1950s - and again during the 1970s - there was a positive correlation between aggregate unemployment and the dispersion of employment growth rates. This thesis demonstrates that this correlation arises largely because oil price shocks affect both unemployment and the dispersion of employment growth. Once the dispersion due to oil shocks is accounted for, the residual dispersion in employment has very low explanatory power for unemployment. Since the dispersion index does not measure pure sectoral shifts, an alternate measure of dispersion is developed that serves as a better proxy for the amount of inter-industry labor reallocation required each period. Estimates using this measure suggest that, during the 1950s, temporary increases in the relative price of oil were responsible for generating the observed correlation. On the other hand, sectoral shifts were important during the 1970s; in particular, the 1973 oil price increase has had significant reallocative effects on the economy. This contention is subjected to further tests by looking at the time-series behaviormore » of employment in durable-goods industries and also by following the inter-industry movements of workers over time through the use of panel data.« less

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Rochester Univ., NY (USA)
OSTI Identifier:
5764304
Resource Type:
Thesis/Dissertation
Resource Relation:
Other Information: Thesis (Ph.D)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; 02 PETROLEUM; EMPLOYMENT; SECTORAL ANALYSIS; ENERGY EXPENSES; ECONOMIC IMPACT; PETROLEUM; PRICES; INDUSTRY; LABOR; ENERGY SOURCES; FOSSIL FUELS; FUELS; 290200* - Energy Planning & Policy- Economics & Sociology; 020700 - Petroleum- Economics, Industrial, & Business Aspects

Citation Formats

Loungani, P. Sectoral shifts and aggregate unemployment. United States: N. p., 1986. Web.
Loungani, P. Sectoral shifts and aggregate unemployment. United States.
Loungani, P. 1986. "Sectoral shifts and aggregate unemployment". United States.
@article{osti_5764304,
title = {Sectoral shifts and aggregate unemployment},
author = {Loungani, P},
abstractNote = {Some recent research has taken the view that sectoral or industry-specific shocks significantly affect aggregate unemployment by increasing the amount of inter-industry labor reallocation required. The empirical evidence for this view rests on the finding that during the 1950s - and again during the 1970s - there was a positive correlation between aggregate unemployment and the dispersion of employment growth rates. This thesis demonstrates that this correlation arises largely because oil price shocks affect both unemployment and the dispersion of employment growth. Once the dispersion due to oil shocks is accounted for, the residual dispersion in employment has very low explanatory power for unemployment. Since the dispersion index does not measure pure sectoral shifts, an alternate measure of dispersion is developed that serves as a better proxy for the amount of inter-industry labor reallocation required each period. Estimates using this measure suggest that, during the 1950s, temporary increases in the relative price of oil were responsible for generating the observed correlation. On the other hand, sectoral shifts were important during the 1970s; in particular, the 1973 oil price increase has had significant reallocative effects on the economy. This contention is subjected to further tests by looking at the time-series behavior of employment in durable-goods industries and also by following the inter-industry movements of workers over time through the use of panel data.},
doi = {},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/5764304}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 1986},
month = {Wed Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 1986}
}

Thesis/Dissertation:
Other availability
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