Analysis of strategic nuclear force levels using vector autoregressive techniques: a multi-nation econometric study
The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the relationships between the strategic nuclear force levels of the US, Soviet Union, and other nuclear powers in order to provide a better understanding of the process by which arms levels are determined. By applying advanced econometric techniques to arms level data, the historical behavior of the nations may be dissected. The findings thus obtained may be compared to previous empirical findings and to the predictions of the theoretical literature on arms races. The major findings of this work are as follows. First, that there is interaction between the various components of the nuclear arsenals of the US and Soviet Union. Previous studies that examined only strategic aggregates missed these interactions. Second, the SALT I treaty did not significantly alter the behavior of these nations. Third, the nuclear-armed NATO nations (Great Britain and France) and possibly the People's Republic of China are important in determining the overall strategic posture of the US and USSR. Finally, process through which the arms levels of the nations studies are determined yield stationary time-series. That is, there is not an arms race with weapons levels spiraling upward indefinitely but a process that is stable in the short run.
- Research Organization:
- Duke Univ., Durham, NC (USA)
- OSTI ID:
- 5730367
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Thesis (Ph. D.)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION
ARMS CONTROL
HISTORICAL ASPECTS
MILITARY STRATEGY
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
SALT TALKS
TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS
USA
USSR
ASIA
EASTERN EUROPE
EUROPE
MATHEMATICS
NORTH AMERICA
WEAPONS
450202* - Explosions & Explosives- Nuclear- Weaponry- (-1989)
290600 - Energy Planning & Policy- Nuclear Energy
350200 - Arms Control- Proliferation- (1987-)