Future supply and demand: Cloudy crystal balls
Alan Fechter reviews and evaluates selected studies that examine whether the future supply of Ph.D. scientists will be adequate to meet the United State`s future workplace needs. He assesses two widely cited projection models, emphasizing the uncertainty associated with forecasts of supply and demand. He concludes that these models tend to overstate potential shortages. He discusses mechanisms that can bring supply and demand into balance and examines the resource implications associated with their use, claiming that some mechanisms associated with their use, claiming that some mechanisms may produce socially undesirable side effects - particularly for underrepresented minorities. Fechter also addresses decision making in the face of the uncertainties associated with such models. He states his preference for a strategy that tilts toward anticipating shortages, arguing that the costs of being wrong in this case would be preferable to the cost of tilting toward an erroneous assumption that markets will eventually be in balance. He advocates close monitoring of and comparison between actual experiences and projections. He argues that such efforts will enable policy analysts to make midcourse corrections in projections and in policy implications, if such corrections are deemed necessary.
- OSTI ID:
- 549140
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-950264-; TRN: 95:006094-0009
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual meeting and science innovation exposition, Atlanta, GA (United States), 16-21 Feb 1995; Other Information: PBD: 1995; Related Information: Is Part Of 1995 AAAS annual meeting and science innovation exposition: Unity in diversity; Strauss, M.S. [ed.]; Heasley, C.; PB: 337 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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