Delphi technique in environmental assessment. I. Implementation and effectiveness
The effectiveness with which a panel of experts, operating within the context of a Delphi technique, could be used to develop information for use in environmental monitoring program design and environmental decision-making was investigated. The Delphi technique was evaluated to determine selection criteria for an expert panel, how many panelists are necessary, what types of information can be considered effectively, and how many iterations are necessary. Small panels consisting of less than 10 individuals representing a variety of areas of experiences appeared sufficient for developing information about conceptual or philosophical issues. Neither large (e.g. 60 persons) nor small panels were effective for considering factual or data-based issues. Two iterations (i.e. an initial questionnaire with one follow-up) were adequate to determine the panel consensus. The costs of this implementation were compared with two other information-gathering techniques, the nominal group technique and retention of expert consultants. The costs of implementing the Delphi technique were between 10 and 60% of the costs of the two other methods. The Delphi method can provide an alternative or complementary means of accessing expert opinion at a reasonable cost. 9 references, 2 tables.
- Research Organization:
- Univ. of Washington, Seattle
- OSTI ID:
- 5478717
- Journal Information:
- J. Environ. Manage.; (United States), Vol. 21:2
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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