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Title: U. S. energy and economic growth, 1975--2010

U. S. energy and economic growth, 1975--2010 This study projects economic growth (GNP) and energy demand for the U.S. to the year 2010. The main finding is that both GNP and total energy demand are likely to grow significantly more slowly than has been assumed in most analyses of energy policy. Projections of energy, GNP, and electricity (total and per capita) are summarized, with electricity demand expected to grow more rapidly than total energy demand. Two scenarios designated ''high'' and ''low'' were developed in this study. However, even the ''high'' scenario, 126 quads (q; 1 q equals 10/sup 15/ Btu) in 2000, is much lower than most previous estimates. It is felt that this raises serious questions about fundamental energy and energy R and D policies which, generally, have been based on perceptions of more lavish energy futures. Although the aggregate demands and GNP are projected to increase rather modestly, the energy demands per capita and GNP per capita increase at rates comparable to or even higher than historic rates. The authors believe that the projections developed in this study represent a logical culmination of many trends toward lower growth. These trends have not yet been factored into the older energy projections upon which so much energy more » policy is based. 136 references. « less
Authors: ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:OSTI ID: 5339787
Report Number(s):ORAU/IEA-76-7
DOE Contract Number:EY-76-C-05-0033
Resource Type:Technical Report
Research Org:Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge, Tenn. (USA)
Country of Publication:United States
Language:English
Subject: 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; ENERGY POLICY; ENERGY SUPPLIES; FORECASTING; USA; ECONOMIC GROWTH; ENERGY DEMAND; ECONOMIC POLICY; ECONOMICS; ELECTRIC POWER; ENERGY EFFICIENCY; ENERGY SOURCES; GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT; EFFICIENCY; GOVERNMENT POLICIES; NORTH AMERICA; POWER 292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply, Demand & Forecasting; 290200 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology